Home visiting: more hype than hope

Image: homvee.acf.gov

by Marie Cohen

Home visiting has been a highly popular intervention for the prevention of child abuse and neglect and for addressing a much broader set of social problems as well. But the research has never supported the efficacy of home visiting programs as a whole for improving child and family outcomes. The latest study of four popular home visiting programs found that all these programs have negligible impacts after five to seven years. But there was no hint of this message in the government’s press release or the report itself. The bipartisan belief in home visiting is prevening a needed examination of home visiting’s impact and the level of resources devoted to it.

A Brief History of US Home Visiting

While home visiting has existed since Elizabethan times in England, its history in the U.S. began in the late nineteenth century with charities seeking to address urban poverty by changing the behavior of poor families. While it is now considered to be the solution to a number of different social problems mostly related to poverty, modern home visiting was conceived as a way to prevent child abuse and neglect. Publication of Henry Kempe’s The Battered Child in 1968 brought about the recognition of child maltreatment as a national problem. To address child abuse, Kempe called for universal prevention through a network of home health visitors. Inspired by Kempe, Hawaii’s Healthy Start Project (HSP) began in 1975. In 1977, David Olds began testing his Nurse Home Visiting program in Elmira, New York. The first Parents as Teachers program was created in 1991. In 1992, the National Committee to Prevent Child Abuse (now Prevent Child Abuse America) rolled out Healthy Families America (HFA).

In 1993, the Future of Children, an influential academic journal produced by Princeton University and the Brookings Institution until 2021, devoted an issue to home visiting. In the summary article, the authors cautioned that the research so far was limited and had mixed results, but opined that the results were “promising enough” to recommend the expansion of existing programs and the continuation of evaluation efforts. Home visiting programs burgeoned in the wake of that issue, with funding from federal, state, and foundation sources.

In 1999, The Future of Children released its second issue on home visiting, containing evaluations of six demonstration programs. The results were sobering. In their analysis of all six studies, Deanna Gomby and colleagues concluded that “[I]n most of the studies described, programs struggled to enroll, engage and retain families. When program benefits were demonstrated, they usually accrued only to a subset of the families originally enrolled in the programs, they rarely occurred for all of a program’s goals, and the benefits were often quite modest in magnitude.” The one exception was the Nurse Home Visiting Program, (now Nurse-Family Partnership), which differed from the other programs in being delivered by nurses rather than paraprofessionals, and which produced some sizable impacts on child abuse and neglect and second births to mothers.

But the home visiting juggernaut was already in motion. Programs continued to grow, funded by multiple sources, and most of the growth was not in the most promising (and expensive) Nurse-Family Partnership. The National Center to Prevent Child Abuse, renamed Prevent Child Abuse America in 1999, made HFA its signature program despite the lack of evidence that it prevents child abuse. According to the National Home Visiting Resource Center, “evidence-based home visiting was implemented in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, 5 territories, 32 Indigenous communities, and 65 percent of U.S. counties” by 2024. These programs reached over 284,000 families through more than three million home visits in that year, and another 70,000 families were reached by 11 “emerging models.” Of the more than three million home visits provided, approximately 14 percent were provided virtually, down from nearly 23 percent in 2024, as services gradually returned to in-person after the pandemic. Today, there are multiple home visiting programs with different target groups, curricula, goals, and personnel. In addition to the 24 models recognized by the federal government, there are an unknown number of “emerging models” which have not yet earned the label of “evidence-based.”

Undaunted by the scant evidence of success, Congress established, with bipartisan support, the Maternal, Infant and Early Childhood Home Visiting Program (MIECHV) as part of the Affordable Care Act of 2010. The goals of the program are to improve the health of mothers and children, prepare children for success in school, improve families’ economic well-being, connect families to other resources in the community, prevent crime and domestic violence and prevent child injuries, abuse and neglect. The funds can be used to implement any one of 24 models that meet the eligibility criteria established by HHS’ Administration for Children and Families (ACF). An evaluation of this program was required by the legislation.

Home visiting programs also became a popular intervention in child welfare with the growing emphasis on keeping children with their families. This began in 1994 with the Title IV-E waivers and continued with the Family First Prevention Services Act (FFPSA), signed by President Trump in 2018. FFPSA allowed states to use Title IV-E funds, formerly reserved for foster care and subsidized adoptions, to support children and families and prevent foster care placements through in-home parent skill-based programs, as well as mental health, drug treatment and kinship navigator services. Programs had to be approved by the new Title IV-E Prevention Services Clearinghouse as “evidence-based” before they could be included in a state’s Family First Prevention Services Plan. According to a research brief from Chapin-Hall at the University of Chicago, at least one home visiting model was included in the Family First Prevention Plans in 28 states as of April 2023. Most commonly included were Parents as Teachers (28) and Healthy Families America (23), with Nurse Family Partnership in third place with 15 programs, and SafeCare in fourth with seven programs.

Home visiting also became popular in growing efforts by child welfare agencies to invest in preventing child abuse and neglect before it occurs, or at least before a family comes to the attention of child protective services. A small source of federal funds, the Community Based Child Abuse Prevention Program (CBCAP), was established by Congress in 1996 to fund such prevention programs and is commonly used to fund home visiting as well.

The bipartisan enthusiasm for home visiting has been unwavering. Created under Obama, MIECHV has been supported by every succeeding administration. Total federal funding on this program is slated to increase from $500 million in 2023 to $800 million in 2027.Earlier this year, the Senate even passed (unanimously) a bipartisan resolution designating April 21 through April 25, 2025 as National Home Visiting Week. Even the Trump Administration has heartily endorsed the home visiting. Yet, the much-vaunted evidence for the value of home visiting really consists of a series of modest impacts affecting different outcomes, often based on less reliable indicators like self-reports, and dwarfed by a sea of findings of no effect. Even the one program (Nurse-Family Partnerhip), that had the most promising early resultsm has no stood up to recent replications–though additional trials with the population that seems to benefit most may be warranted.

Home visiting program evaluations

There have been multiple studies of home visiting programs, including both randomized controlled trials (RCT’s) and comparison group studies, and together these studies have generated hundreds of papers. Therefore, Child Welfare Monitor (CWM) drew from a summary of research on Nurse-Family Partnership from the Arnold Ventures Social Programs that Work website; the evidence assembled on the website of the Title IV-E Prevention Services Clearinghouse for Healthy Families America, Parents as Teachers, and SafeCare; and the Home Visiting Evidence of Effectiveness (HomVEE) Review conducted by the Administration on Children and Families of HHS for Early Head Start Home-Based Option. CWM consulted the original studies as needed, focusing on RCT‘s because randomization is the best way to rule out selection bias as the explanation for any differences between the intervention group and the control group. Otherwise, one cannot know whether the group that participated in the program differed in significant but unmeasured ways from the members of the comparison group. Appendix I includes more details about the program evaluations. Appendix II focuses on the challenges in measuring child abuse and neglect and what the research suggests.

Nurse-Family Partnership

Nurse -Family Partnership (NFP) connects first-time mothers and their babies with a specially trained nurse, who works with the mother and child from early in the pregnancy through the child’s second birthday. It differs from other models in using registered nurses to deliver the visits, making it more expensive and dependent on a scarcer group of providers. Nurse Family Partnership (NFP) has been the subject of RCT‘s in Elmira, NY (launched in 1988); Memphis, TN (launched in 1990), Denver, CO (1994) and in a larger statewide trial in South Carolina that started in 2016. It has also been tried internationally in British Columbia, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Germany; though the differences between populations and systems make these results less applicable to the United States, they can be seen as suggestive. The participants in the demonstrations were all first-time mothers but other criteria for inclusion varied by study. Among the effects that were replicated in two or more of the studies identified by the Arnold Ventures’ Social Programs That Work website were reductions in medical treatment for injuries and accidents in Elmira and Memphis), reductions in subsequent births to mothers in their late teens and early twenties (in Elmira, Denver, and Memphis), and an improvement in cognitive or academic outcomes for the children of mothers with lower psychological resources, like intelligence, mental health, and self-confidence (in Memphis and Denver). There were few significant impacts on children’s emotional and behavioral outcomes and mothers’ life trajectories in terms of employment, income and crime, and those impacts were not repeated in more than one study.

A recent scaled-up NFP replication in South Carolina was disappointing, producing no significant positive effects on any of the three primary outcomes studied: the rate of adverse birth outcomes, mothers’ rate of subsequent births within 21 months, and child health, measured as “a composite of mortality or health care utilization associated with major injury or concern for abuse or neglect.” Nor did the researchers find any significant improvements for a prespecified subsample of “socially vulnerable families” that were similar to the families for which earlier studies found positive impacts. There were also no significant findings for the secondary outcomes, which related to healthcare utilization. These results were sobering, and the researchers suggest that the rapid scaling up of the program and the broader population served may have contributed to the weaker results. David Olds, the founder of NFP, suggests¹ that the program’s effectiveness was affected by the relative inexperience of the nurses (due to the rapid implementation), the use of impersonal recruitment methods (unlike Elmira and Memphis, where nurses personally recruited mothers in clinic waiting rooms), and the relatively more advantaged clientele. The program included any pregnant woman who qualified for Medicaid in South Carolina, which funded 46 percent of births in that state in 2023 and includes women up to 200 percent of the poverty level. So it was a less disadvantaged group than was included in the other US demonstrations, and earlier studies suggested that the more disadvantaged benefited more from this program.² Thus, further study of NFP with a highly disadvantaged population should be considered.

Healthy Families America (HFA)

Healthy Families America, an initiative of the national organization, Prevent Child Abuse America, is a flexible program that allows local communities to choose their eligibility criteria, parenting materials, and staff. Services last for a minimum of three years and up to five years. Based on three RCTs of Healthy Families America, the Title IV-E Prevention Services Clearinghouse counted 18 favorable “contrasts” (their term for comparisons between the intervention and control groups) compared to four unfavorable contrasts and 211 contrasts displaying no effect. Among the 18 favorable contrasts, 11 were on self-reports of maltreatment or child behavioral and emotional functioning. Of the other impacts, all were from only one RCT. Many outcome categories showed no favorable impacts. These included child safety measured by administrative reports; child safety based on injuries, Emergency Room use or hospitalizations; child permanency based on out-of-home placements; child social functioning; child physical development and health; parent/caregiver substance abuse; and economic and housing stability. One of the four RCT‘s (Healthy Families Oregon) showed no positive impacts at all.

Parents as Teachers

Parents as Teachers is delivered by “parent educators” who work with families from pregnancy through kindergarten. The Clearinghouse identified one American RCT of this program, one RCT from Switzerland, and one matched comparison group study. The one US RCT, which evaluated two separate demonstrations in California, found that PAT had “little effect on parenting knowledge, attitudes or behaviors as measured in these demonstrations. Nor were significant effects noted on child health or health care.” The demonstration did find small positive effects (a two-month gain at the age of three) on “self-help development” in one of the two sites but no significant effects on cognitive development at either site. In the Swiss study, the clearinghouse found one significant effect on one of two measures of the child’s expressive language.

SafeCare

SafeCare is a brief home visiting model that is delivered in 18 one-hour sessions. SafeCare is designed for parents and caregivers of children birth through five who are either at-risk for or have a history of child neglect and/or physical abuse. It was included in the Title IV-E Prevention Plans of seven states in April 2023. The contrasts reported by the Clearinghouse include only one favorable effect–on foster care placement–based on a matched comparison group study and not an RCT and one unfavorable effect (on child welfare reports), along with 19 findings of no effect.

Early Head Start-Home-Based Option

Early Head Start Home-Based Option provides weekly visits to pregnant women, infants, and toddlers until the child is three years old. The goal is to promote school readiness of young children by enhancing their cognitive, social and emotional development. The federal reviewers of Early Head Start’s Home-Based Option used nine publications based on a large federal RCT of the program at 17 sites as well as the early results of the federal study of MCHIEV programs, which is described below. There were no favorable findings on maternal or child health; child maltreatment; or delinquency, family violence and crime. There were a few favorable impacts on child development and school readiness; positive parenting practices; and family economic self-sufficiency scattered among multiple findings of no effect. These effects were not consistent across age groups or outcomes where one would expect some alignment (like reading to children vs. reading at bedtime). These impacts appeared to be small, although the lack of standardized effect sizes complicates interpretation. In the final report on Early Head Start, the authors stated that at “the end of the program, when children were three, impacts were modest in size and Early Head Start children continued to perform below national norms on cognitive and language assessments.” By the time the children reached fifth grade, all but one favorable impact earlier reported was gone.

The MIHOPE Study

The legislation establishing the Maternal, Infant and Early Childhood Home Visiting Program (MIECHV) required an evaluation of the program in its early years. The study, named the Mother and Infant Home Visiting Program Evaluation (MIHOPE), included 88 local programs in 12 states and was carried out by an evaluation nonprofit called MDRC. All of the programs were based on one of the four models most commonly chosen by states in their initial MIECHV plans–Early Head Start Home-based Option, Healthy Families America, Nurse-Family Partnership, and Parents as Teachers. A total of 4,229 families enrolled in the demonstrations between 2012 and 2015. Strangely, even though the sample sizes were large enough to estimate the effects of each program model, the researchers opted to report findings for all four models taken as a whole, a decision that has been criticized by experts and funders because of the significant programmatic differences between the models. Early findings released in 2019 from when the children were 15 months old were disappointing. There was little difference between the experimental and control groups. About a third of the 63 outcomes measured were statistically significant and though most comparisons did favor the home-visited groups, the effect sizes were extremely small–too small to be of any practical significance. The authors reported that for most outcomes the effects were slightly smaller than the average effects found in past studies of the models (which were already modest).

On September 11, 2025, the Administration on Children and Families released the long-term results of the MIECHV program evaluation conductd five to seven years after enrollment, when children were in kindergarten or first grade. Summing up their findings in a press release, ACF asserted that “MIECHV-funded home visiting significantly improved maternal and family wellbeing for participants five-to-seven years after enrolling in services…MIHOPE found statistically significant and positive effects of home visiting” for the five categories of maternal and family well-being outcomes. For the three categories of child outcomes, the researchers found “some evidence of positive effects,” but only one was statistically significant and positive.

Unfortunately, the researchers did not distinguish between a statistically significant effect and an effect which is large enough to be meaningful. A more sober analysis by the Coalition for Evidence-Based Policy shows that home visiting produced “negligible outcomes” for each of the eight expected impacts. The review points out that the average effect size across the six statistically significant or near-significant categories of effects was 0.03 – the equivalent of moving the average child or mother from the 50th to the 51st percentile. The study did not report model-specific effect sizes, but the reviewers noted that they are likely to be small or modest given that few reached statistical significance. It is also worth mentioning that many of the outcomes came from maternal answers to a caregiver survey, introducing the possibility of bias..

It is also concerning that the evaluation team at MDRC used a different analysis plan to assess impacts for the kindergarten study than it did for the earlier results. The new analysis plan was dated January, 2025 (but not released until May 2025). The new methodology combined all the 66 outcomes studied into eight new “research questions” some of the outcomes were included under more than one research question. The researchers chose to focus not on the significance of each individual impact, as was done in the earlier report. Instead, they decided to use a method called “omnibus testing” to compute an overall significance level for each research question.³ By choosing this method, they were able to find significant results (at the 0.10 level) for five of the eight research questions, where looking at each outcome would have shown only eight significant outcomes out of 86, or less than 10 percent of the outcomes. Since the new analysis plan was dated January 2025, it seems likely that it was developed after an analysis of the data (which was collected in 2021 and 2022) under the old plan yielded unsatisfactory results.⁴ The Imprint has published a more detailed critique of the MIHOPE study by Sarah Font and Emily Putnam-Hornstein called The Odd Bipartisan Effort to Oversell the Evidence for Home Visiting.

Why have home visiting programs been so unsuccessful at changing outcomes for most children and families?

As Deanna Gomby stated back in 1990, “home visiting programs have struggled to engage and retain families.” Research has documented low levels of enrollment and engagement of families at risk of maltreatment in voluntary services in general and home visiting in particular. According to the MIHOPE implementation report, 17 percent of the home visiting group never even received one visit, as compared to 12 to 22 percent in previous studies. All the models expected families to participate at least until the child’s second birthday, with services available for two or three years longer in three of the programs. Yet, only 46 percent of families were still participating in home visits 12 months after their first visit, consistent with previous research. On average, families who received at least one home visit went on to participate for an average of eight months. While participating, families received fewer visits than expected by the models in which they were enrolled. In the first 12 months, less than 60 percent of families received at least half of the visits prescribed by their model, a result consistent with prior research. Part of the problem might be that many people who need the kind of help that home visiting is designed to provide do not want to let a stranger into their home to scrutinize their parenting and family functioning. Child Welfare Monitor has heard in the District of Columbia and elsewhere that there is an oversupply of home visiting slots, with too few people wanting to participate.

Misleading Congress, the Media and the Public

Ever since the initial excitement about home visiting, there have been high hopes for this service delivery method and unwillingness among policymakers on both sides of the aisle to discard their hopes. At the same time, the federal government along with many advocacy groups, has endorsed a vision of “evidence-based practices” that asks only for a minimal number of statistically significant impacts, with no concern about the size of the impacts or the nature of the evidence–whether it is self-reported, self-contradictory, or unsupported by more than one study. As a result, studies that show only a few modest impacts that may be statistically significant but not meaningful in size or corroborated by other studies can be cited as evidence of program success.

Unfortunately, program evaluations are technical enough that readers who are not schooled in the intricacies of research methods are often forced to rely on the researchers’ interpretation of their findings. The usually well-informed Congressional Research Service has stated that “A large body of research suggests that some home visiting models or services can benefit children and their parents.” Less surprisingly, the press is easily misled. Due to lack of time or expertise in the intricacies of social science research, reporters often simply report what is in the press release announcing new research results. For example, the Imprint, a widely circulated outlet for child welfare content, repeated in its podcast the government’s misleading proclamation about good news from the MIHOPE study.

—–

No matter how painful the process, legislators, agency officials and advocates should remove their blinders about home visiting. It is time to phase out the MIECHV program. State and local governments should begin scaling down their home visiting programs and funneling the money to other uses that are currently underfunded. In this time of budget scarcity, it is time to stop throwing good money after bad. We need new ideas and meaningful evaluations that can bring about the implementation of programs that actually work. If money is being wasted on home visiting services that are not making a difference, or not even being used, surely there are better uses of these scarce funds.

Appendix I

In the absence of time to review the hundreds of publications on the Nurse Family Partnership Program, I used the excellent evidence summary on the Arnold Ventures Social Programs that Work website. For the studies of HFA, Parents as Teachers, and SafeCare, I relied mostly on the compilation of study results provided by the Title IV-E Prevention Services Clearinghouse. For Early Head Start, which was not included in the Clearinghouse, I used the Home Visiting Evidence of Effectiveness review conducted by the Office of Policy Research and Evaluation (OPRE) of the US Department of Health and Human Services.

Nurse Family Partnership

Each of the four U.S. RCT’s of NFP had a different population and eligibility criteria for participants. Elmira is in a small, semirural county in New York State which had the highest rate of child abuse and neglect in the state at the time of the study. In 1980, the community was rated the lowest Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area in the United States for economic conditions. Program participants In Elmira were either teens, unmarried, or low-income, and all were White. They were actively recruited by nurses at the prenatal clinic, private obstetricians’ offices, Planned Parenthood, schools, and other health and human services agencies. In Memphis, the program admitted pregnant women with no previous live births who did not have a chronic illness that might affect the fetus and who had at least two of the following risk factors: being unmarried, having less than 12 years of education, and being unemployed. Ninety-two percent of the women enrolled were Black, 98 percent were unmarried, 64 percent were eighteen years old or younger and 85 percent came from households with incomes at or above the poverty level. In Denver, women were recruited at any point in their pregnancy if they had no previous live births and either qualified for Medicaid or had no health insurance. Almost half of the two groups were Hispanic, another 35 percent were Caucasian, and 16-17 percent were Black. The South Carolina demonstration recruited pregnant women who were 15 years or older and eligible for Medicaid, which meant their incomes were less than two percent of the poverty level. The participants were mainly non-Hispanic Black (54.9 percent) and non-Hispanic White (35.0). In addition to enrolling a different population, each study looked at a different set of outcomes, and sometimes at different times as well, making it hard to compare the results. The findings of the demonstrations are summarized below.

Child safety based on child welfare administrative reports: There was no statistically significant difference among confirmed child maltreatment reports between the experimental and control groups in Elmira. But there is some evidence that the Elmira program reduced child maltreatment among the participants who were most at risk, those who were teenagers, poor and unmarried. Among this group, 19 percent (or a total of eight) of the poor, unmarried teens had a verified maltreatment report compared to only one of their nurse-visited counterparts. But this effect was statistically significant at the p-0.7 level, not the standard level of 0.05. And there were no treatment-control differences in verified maltreatment reports during the two years after the program ended. However, the Elmira study did find a large impact on verified CPS reports when the children were 15; nurse-visited children had received on average of 0.29 verified CPS reports compared to 0.54 in the comparison group. This result is difficult to explain and one wonders if it was due to chance.This outcome was not examined in Memphis or Denver. The Netherlands study also found a large, statistically significant impact on child welfare administrative reports, where the researchers found that 11 percent of the visited children had a CPS report compared to 19 percent of the control group children during the first three years of their lives.
Child safety based on health care for injuries and ingestions: Nurse visited children in Elmira had fewer emergency room visits for injuries and ingestions in their second year of life than the control group. (This was not measured during the first year, when they were less mobile and able to get into trouble. No effect size was provided). When they were between 25 and 50 months old, they had 40 percent fewer mentions for injuries and ingestions in their medical records and 45 percent fewer mentions of child behavioral or parental coping problems. In Memphis the researchers found that in the first two years of life, nurse-visited children had an average of 0.43 health encounters for injuries or ingestions compared to 0.56 for the control group, or 23 percent fewer encounters. They also spent an average of 0.04 days hospitalized for injuries and ingestions, compared to 0.18 days for the control group– a 78% decrease. A more recent evaluation of a large scale implementation of NFP in South Carolina found no difference between the experimental and control groups on child health, measured as “a composite of mortality or health care utilization associated with major injury or concern for abuse or neglect.” In the UK Study, there were no differences in the rates of emergency hospital visits for the experimental and control groups.
Child wellbeing based on behavioral and emotional functioning: This outcome was not included in Elmira at two and four years. But there were large favorable effects on self-reported arrests and convictions for the Elmira children at age 15-19–a finding that was not reported anywhere else and was not matched by effects on other outcomes like high school graduation, teen pregnancy, engagement in work or school at 19, or self-reported substance use or welfare receipt, all of which could have been expected to covary with the arrests and convictions. So it is not clear whether these results occurred by chance. In Memphis there were no effects found on children’s reported behavioral problems at two years, nor were there any results on youth behavioral functioning when they got older. There were significant favorable effects on child emotional functioning in Denver at two years and four years. By ages six to nine in Denver, behavioral and emotional effects were consistently favorable but did not reach statistical significance at standard levels, perhaps because the sample size was not large enough.
Child wellbeing based on cognitive functions and abilities: In Elmira there were no statistically significant cognitive effects on children in the first two years, although the researchers observed “improved intellectual functioning of nine to 11 points on the developmental tests for children from the highest risk families. Although only marginally significant statistically, the researchers observed that it is of clinical importance. Treatment effects in this range are consistent with those obtained for children of this age enrolled in intensive early childhood intervention programs aimed specifically at enhancing cognitive development.” In Memphis, there were no effects at two years on children’s mental development but there were substantial statistically significant effects on academic performance at age 12 for the children whose mothers were in the lower half of the sample on intelligence, mental health and self-confidence. In Denver, there were favorable effects on the cognitive development of children born to mothers with low psychological resources in the two-year follow-up. This group also did better cognitively at ages six to nine but the findings only occasionally reached statistical significance and may be due to attrition differences between the intervention and control groups. But at age 18 there were “sizable, significant” effects on two of three cognitive outcomes for this subgroup in Memphis. Cognitive effects were not studied for Elmira or Denver 18-year-olds.
Maternal life course: When the children were aged 15, the Elmira study found that nurse-visited mothers had 19 percent fewer births than control mothers, an average of 1.3 births compared to 1.6. In Memphis, the mothers had 16 percent fewer births in the first six years of the program. They had caught up by the time the children were 12, but the increase in birth spacing is still a significant favorable outcome. In Denver, home-visited women had fewer subsequent pregnancies (29 percent vs. 41 percent) and births (12 percent vs. 19 percent) by their children’s second birthdays. There was no impact on the rate of second pregnancies after two years in the South Carolina, British Columbia, and UK studies. Where reported, there were no effects on adverse birth outcomes, maternal employment, likelihood of partnership or marriage with the child’s father, substance abuse, psychological distress or foster care placements (mentioned only in Memphis).

Healthy Families America

The contrasts presented by the Title IV-E. Clearinghouse were based on four RCT’s that were rated highly for design and execution by clearinghouse staff. The results of each RCT are based on multiple research papers published for each major study. Reviewing the Clearinghouse’s tabulation of the data, and sometimes comparing it to the actual publications to which it referred, raised several questions about the overall effectiveness of the program:

Child safety measured by child welfare administrative reports: There were no favorable or unfavorable outcomes, as compared with 43 contrasts showing no statistically significant effect.
Child safety, based on maternal self-reports about whether they maltreated their children: There were five favorable contrasts, 38 contrasts with no effect, and one unfavorable contrast. It is hard to be confident about the validity of self-reports of maltreatment, as one could easily imagine the program participants having learned more about what to report, and under-reporting behaviors (such as spanking) that they had been taught were undesirable. The large number of contrasts with no effect is worth noting.
Child safety based on injuries needing medical care, hospitalizations, and emergency use: There were no favorable or unfavorable impacts and 11 contrasts showing no effect.
Child permanency based on out-of-home placements: There were six contrasts showing no effect, and none showing a positive or negative effect.
Child well-being: Behavioral and Emotional Functioning: Five contrasts showed a positive effect, two with no effect, and none with a negative effect. All of the five positive effects were reported by Healthy Families Alaska and were fairly large. But all of these were based on the caregiver’s report of the child’s behavior, and self-reports are not sufficient on their own for making conclusions about impact. Moreover, these outcomes and measures were not replicated in any other study.
Child well-being: social functioning: The Clearinghouse reports no favorable or unfavorable effects and and two contrasts showing no effect.
Child well-being: cognitive functions and abilities: There were two favorable impacts, one unfavorable impact, and 6 contrasts showing no effect. The two favorable impacts came from Alaska and were not found in any other evaluations.
Child well-being: physical development and health: The Clearinghouse reported no favorable or unfavorable impacts and six contrasts with no impact.
Child well-being: delinquent behavior. There was one favorable effect in the one contrast available, which was “child skips school often.” A look at the publication containing this result, which was a report on the RCT of Healthy Families New York (HFNY) seven years after random assignment, showed that fewer children self-reported skipping school, but this result was not supported by reports from their mothers.
Child well-being: educational attainment: The Clearinghouse reported one favorable impact and two findings of no impact. All three findings came from one publication from the HFNY RCT. The researchers found that children in the HFNY group were about half as likely to be retained in first grade (3.54 percent) than children in the control group (7.10 percent), based on official school data. However, there were no impacts found for the other two educational attainment outcomes used by the Clearinghouse–performing above or below grade level in reading or math. Moreover, this contrast was not available from any other study.
Adult well-being: positive parenting practices: There were three favorable impacts and 24 findings of no impact. All of the favorable impacts were from another report on HFNY that was based on observations of how the mothers interacted with their children as they completed three tasks–a puzzle solving task, a delay of gratification task, and a cleanup task. I was not able to judge the size of the effects; all were statistically significant at the 0.05 level. However, there were no significant effects on observed presence of harsh parenting during the same tasks. Moreover, this outcome was not included in the evaluation of any other program.
Adult well-being: parent/caregiver mental/emotional health. The Clearinghouse found three favorable impacts and 16 contrasts showing no impacts from a total of three RCT’s.
Adult well-being: Parent/Caregiver Substance abuse: There were no favorable or unfavorable effects, and 15 instances where no statistically significant effect was found.
Adult well-being: family functioning: There were three favorable impacts, one unfavorable impact, and 28 instances of no impact. The three favorable impacts stemmed from three different contrasts related to Intimate Partner Violence (IPV)–overall maternal IPV victimization rate (child age 1-3), maternal IPV victimization rate: physical assault (child aged 1 to 3), and maternal IPV perpetration rate: physical assault (child age 1 to 3). The size of the effect was not provided and there were nine other maternal IPV contrasts when the child was aged 1 to 3 that showed no effect. There were ~~were~~ no impacts on IPV when the child was older.
Adult well-being: economic and housing stability. There were no favorable impacts, five contrasts showing no impact, and one showing an unfavorable impact.

Parents as Teachers

The results presented by the Title IV-E Clearinghouse are based on two RCT’s and one study based on a matched comparison group. Even when counting all these programs, the results are not impressive.

For child safety based on administrative reports, the Clearinghouse noted two contrasts with a favorable effect and two with no effect. The effect size and implied percentile effect calculated by the Clearinghouse were very small. Moreover, these results were based on a matched comparison group rather than an RCT, casting doubt on the validity of the results.
Child permanency (out-of-home placement): The clearinghouse cited no favorable or unfavorable findings and one finding of no effect.
Child well-being: social functioning. The original article cited by the Clearinghouse, based on an RCT in two California sites, reported that PAT children in one of the sites benefited significantly, advancing by about two months of the control group in self-help development but did not report significant results for the other site or for social development at either site.
Child well-being: cognitive functions and abilities: Based on the American and Swiss RCT’s, The Clearinghouse reported two favorable findings and 10 findings of no effect. But one of the findings was actually of no effect for the PAT-only group; it was the “PAT plus case management group” that experienced an impact.
Child well-being: Physical development and health: The clearinghouse reported no favorable or unfavorable effects and three findings of no effect from one RCT.
Adult well-being: positive parenting practices: The Clearinghouse reported no favorable or unfavorable effects and one finding of no effect from an RCT.
Adult well-being: family functioning: The Clearinghouse reported no favorable effects, 8 findings of no effect, and one unfavorable effect, all from one RCT.
Adult well-being: economic and housing stability. The Clearinghouse reported no favorable effects, one unfavorable effect, and nine findings of no effect, all from one RCT.

SafeCare

SafeCare is a brief home visiting model that is delivered in 18 one-hour sessions. SafeCare is designed for parents and caregivers of children birth through five who are either at-risk for or have a history of child neglect and/or physical abuse.It was included in the Title IV-E Prevention Plans of seven states in April 2023. The contrasts reported by the Clearinghouse include only one favorable effect–on foster care placement–based on a matched comparison group study and not an RCT and one unfavorable effect (on child welfare reports), along with 19 findings of no effect.

Early Head Start Home-based Option

The Early Head Start Home-based option serves low-income women and families with children under three years old. They receive a minimum of weekly 90-minute home visits and two group socialization activities per month. The findings discussed here are based on the HHS Office of Policy Research and Evaluation (OPRE) review of the research on home visiting. OPRE reports that it reviewed 23 “manuscripts” and identified nine of those manuscripts that were based on “impact studies rated high or moderate quality.” By focusing on “manuscripts” instead of studies, OPRE obscured the fact that seven of these manuscripts were actually based on the same study–a large federal demonstration of EHS programs in 17 sites conducted between 1996 and 2002. Of the nine manuscripts, five were based on the full study and two were based on results from one Utah site only. The other two studies reviewed were based on results of the MIHOPE study of four home-visiting models when the children were 15 months old. All but two of the manuscripts were rated high by the OPRE staff in quality for methodology. The manuscripts based on the Utah study and the grade five follow-up for the national study were rated “moderate” in quality because of high attrition. In the nine publications reviewed, there were no favorable findings on maternal or child health; child maltreatment; or delinquency, family violence and crime. There were a few favorable impacts on child development and school readiness; positive parenting practices; and family economic self-sufficiency. These effects were not consistent across age groups or similar outcomes (like reading to children vs. reading at bedtime.) These impacts appeared to be small, although the lack of standardized effect sizes makes the importance of the effects hard to estimate.

For child development and school readiness, the reviewers reported five favorable findings from the 17-site study and the Utah study. All the other 66 contrasts related to child development and school readiness in the two studies showed no effect. By the time the children in the main study reached fifth grade, no effects remained.
For positive parenting practices, the reviewers reported 10 favorable findings from the 17-site study and the Utah study. In total, there were 64 findings of no effect in this area. By the time children reached fifth grade, one favorable impact (which was not noted for the three or five year-olds) was observed.
For family economic self-sufficiency, the reviewers reported 16 favorable findings, one unfavorable finding and 88 findings of no effect from 3 publications in a total of two studies. No economic effects remained by the time the children were in fifth grade.

Appendix II: Home visiting and child maltreatment

Analyzing the effect of any program on child maltreatment poses unique difficulties because it is such a difficult outcome to measure. Obviously, the evaluators cannot see what goes on in a household after the visitor has gone home. Evaluators have used three types of measures to estimate the effects of home visiting programs on child maltreatment–verified child protective services (CPS) reports, health care encounters for injuries or ingestions (or simply emergency room visits), and self-reports of abusive or neglectful behaviors through surveys like the Conflict Tactics Scale.

The most obvious measure of abuse and neglect is official Child Protective Services (CPS) data, but there are several problems with CPS data as a measure of maltreatment. The number of maltreatment reports that are confirmed (substantiated) by CPS is most frequently used, but it is known to be an understatement. Many cases go unreported, and reported cases are often not substantiated. Another problem is that verified abuse is a relatively rare event in a population and a study may not have enough participants to detect it. Finally, h visitors are mandatory reporters and their presence in the home introduces surveillance bias; these families are under more surveillance than families in the control group and may receive more reports for that reason.

Olds and his colleagues did not find statistically significant differences in substantiated CPS reports for the whole program group during the two year period that families participated in the Elmira demonstration or in the subsequent two years. But they found some evidence that the Elmira program did reduce child maltreatment among the participants who were most at risk–those who were teenagers, poor and unmarried. About 19 percent (or a total of eight) of the ~~the~~ poor, unmarried teens had a verified maltreatment report compared to four percent (or one) of their nurse-visited counterparts. But this effect was statistically significant at the p-0.07 level, not the standard level of 0.05. And there were no treatment-control differences in verified maltreatment reports for this subgroup or the whole treatment group during the two years after the program ended. The researchers speculated that this may be due to increased surveillance on the nurse-visited group, because the nurses connected them to other providers before the programs ended.

However, a surprising finding emerged when the children were 15 years old. By that age, nurse-visited children had received on average of 0.29 verified CPS reports compared to 0.54 in the comparison group–a large and highly statistically significant difference. The investigators hypothesized that as young first-time parents mature and develop, small positive changes that [occur while they are in the program] can build and multiply over time, yielding larger effects in later years.” The mechanism by which the Elmira program had such delayed effects is hard to understand. Perhaps it occurred by chance. But in any case, a replication would be necessary to give it credence, and this outcome was not measured in Memphis or Denver.

As an alternative to CPS data, some researchers have used data on health care encounters for children’s injuries or ingestions. Many of these encounters may reflect abuse or neglect but they also would include cases that are not due to either abuse or neglect and would leave out many instances of maltreatment as well. But it is certainly a good indicator of safe parenting. In the four-year followup of the NFP Elmira group, when the children were 25 to 50 months old, the researchers found that nurse-visited children had 40 percent fewer injuries and ingestions (according to notations in their medical records) and ~~and~~ 45 percent fewer notations of or child behavioral or parental coping problems. Nurse-visited children also made 35 percent fewer visits to the emergency room. In the NFP Memphis trial, the evaluators found that nurse-visited children had an average of 0.43 health encounters for injuries or ingestions compared to 0.56 for the control group, or 23 percent fewer encounters in the first two years of their lives. They also spent an average of 0.04 days hospitalized for injuries and ingestions, compared to 0.18 days for the control group. But a more recent evaluation of a large scale implementation of NFP in South Carolina, described above, found no difference found between the experimental and control groups in its composite measure of child mortality and major injury related to abuse or neglect.

Other studies have used parent self-report measures such as the Conflict Tactics Scale. This measure is less valid than the other two because many parents are reluctant to report abusing or neglecting their children. A few studies found positive effects on such measures but without any corroboration from more objective measures.

Notes

Conversation between Marie Cohen and David Olds, October 22, 2025
↩︎
Similar disappointing results from a study in the United Kingdom may have been influenced by a control group that received an average of 16 home visits from a public health nurse and 11 visits from a midwife through the child’s second birthday, as well as targeting a lower-risk population than most of the other studies. A study in British Columbia found no reductions in its primary outcome – child injuries by age two years – or in subsequent maternal pregnancies by the child’s second birthday. The authors speculate that British Columbia’s more comprehensive health and social services may explain the lack of effects. ↩︎
The authors organized the outcomes into five “research questions” focusing on maternal outcomes and three research questions focusing on “child outcomes.” The “maternal outcomes” included “outcomes that could be improved through direct interaction between parents and home visitors;” maternal mental and behavioral health; parent-child interactions; conflict, violence, aggression and maltreatment;” and families’ economic circumstances. The child outcomes included “children’s social-emotional functioning in the home context; children’s social-emotional functioning at school; and children’s cognitive, language and early math skills. ↩︎
Conversation with Emily Putnam-Hornstein, who made me aware of the revised 2025 research plan. ↩︎

This post was edited on November 10, 2025 to add a sentence and links about enrollment and engagement in home visiting and a link to an article about the MIHOPE report.

Child welfare and community norms: a troubling divergence

This summer, I was asked by a reporter to comment on a terrible case in the District of Columbia. Twenty-month old Kemy Washington died of starvation and dehydration, after her mother had had overdosed on a mix of MDMA, cocaine, ethanol and the animal sedative xylazine. An older sibling had been removed from Kemy’s mother due to her neglect and that child’s guardianship with a relative had been ratified only days before Kemy was born. Yet, Kemy was never on the radar screen of the Child and Family Services Agency until her grandmother made two calls, which were apparently screened out as not involving child abuse or neglect. When I read the more than 600 comments on the article, I was struck that over and over again, commenters asked the same question. How is it that a mother who had a previous child removed from her due to neglect could give birth to another child without triggering an investigation, close monitoring, or even removal of the child? The reporter asked me the same question and I explained that such a policy, though clearly logical to members of the community, would never be accepted by the current child welfare establishment, where it would be viewed as an unacceptable infringement on parents’ rights.

I have often remarked on situations where child welfare policy or practice departs from general community norms. Whether it is the continued screening out of calls on the same family, even if a child was previously removed; the refusal to consider policies that would trigger investigations when a new child is born to a parent who committed severe abuse or neglect; the push to “reunify” children with parents who have proved over and over again that they cannot keep them safe or even stop harming them, it seems that policymakers and practitioners of child welfare are operating from a different set of norms than the public. What would be clear to a grandparent, a neighbor, or a random layperson do not seem so evident for those who are charged with protecting our children. This was made very clear in a devastating report on child fatalities in Minnesota. As the authors put it,

Members of the public often express dismay and outrage to us over stories such as those recounted in this report. We infer from this that the professional norms currently guiding child protection and foster care are out of alignment with those of the broader community.

Examples of this divergence abound, and I am sharing just a few here.

“B.B.” was born in the State of Washington in 2022 and died of fentanyl poisoning in March, 2023. Starting in 2014, the Department of Children, Youth and Families (DCYF) had received 30 reports about B.B.’s family for the use of heroin, marijuana and alcohol in the home; lack of supervision of the children; domestic violence; an unsafe adult living with the family; an unsafe and unclean physical environment; unsecured guns in the home, “out-of-control” behaviors by B.B.’s older siblings at school to which the mother was unresponsive, seeming “out of it;” concerns about the children’s hygiene; and the mother driving under the influence of marijuana. A few days before B.B.’s death, a caseworker told B.B.’s mother that the agency was closing a voluntary services case that had been open for about half a year. But the family was already under investigation again at the time B.B. died.

There have been multiple cases around the country of child protection workers disregarding reports of hungry children eating food from the floor or the garbage, until a child finally died or escaped from the torturers. School staff in Utah reported making at least four calls in the 2022-2023 school year (confirmed by a timeline released by DCFS) to CPS alleging that Gavin Peterson was always hungry and eating food from the trash. School staff were buying his lunch but had to stop after his father and stepmother forbade it. One school staffer “said Gavin’s father and stepmother justified Gavin’s small frame and constant desire for food as side effects from his medication, but she didn’t buy it.” Why did CPS? That summer, Gavin was withdrawn from school. A year later he was dead after years of starvation and beatings.

Seven-month-old Emmanuel Haro is missing and presumed dead. Investigators believe that he was abused for an extended period of time before he was killed. But his suffering and death could have been avoided. His father had been arrested for abusing a child from a previous marriage in 2018–abuse so serious that the child is now bedridden. A simple “birth match” policy could have prevented the death of Emmanuel Haro. If birth records were linked to criminal and CPS records, Emmanuel’s birth could have triggered a mandatory investigation and monitoring because the father had been convicted of child abuse–the kind of policy that commenters in the Kemy Washington case were asking for. It is hard to think of a more common-sense idea than birth match. Yet, only five states had such a policy in 2022, according to my report on birth match for the American Enterprise Institute. And most of these programs are very limited both in terms of which parents are covered and of the state response.

Even a birth match policy would not help in cases where a parent’s violent history is known but disregarded. Four-year-old Rykelan Brown died from a beating by his father, Joshua Emmons, in May 2024, two months after he was removed from a loving foster home to be placed with Emmons. The foster parents had repeatedly reported that Rykelan came home from visits with his father bruised and saying his father hit him and he never wanted to go there again. The local Department of Social Services knew that in 2019 Emmons had beat his then-girlfriend’s three-year-old son so severely that he damaged the child’s liver, which must now be checked regularly. But the social services commissioner told an interviewer that the event occurred too long ago to be considered. Really? Even when paired with Rykelan’s bruises and reports of beatings?

As the above examples show, some things that are intuitive to ordinary people – -like that a child going to school hungry (and not because of poverty) – is a sign that something is deeply wrong at home–seemed to be missed by people engaged in child welfare practice, administration and policymaking. Much of the problem stems from a dominant ideology that preaches that abused and neglected children are almost always better off with their own families. The same viewpoint holds that what child welfare calls neglect is just poverty, as if all poor parents neglect their children, and that child welfare is a a racist system that was created to destroy Black and Brown families.¹ Social work schools have adopted and promulgated these positions and agencies have incorporated them in the training for new social workers. Deep-pocketed groups like Casey Family Programs have used their money to foster this ideology through training and technical assistance to state and local agencies. The entire child welfare community in many states has found itself endorsing policies and practices that defy common sense thinking.

We must bring child welfare policy and practice back into alignment with community norms. But that is easier said than done. The public pays little attention to child welfare until there is a tragic fatality or egregious incident that is covered in the media. But many of these cases are never known to the media and therefore to the public. And even when they are, child welfare agencies often refuse to release information about their past involvement with the family, in violation of federal law. So the press, the public and legislators cannot identify what went wrong and what would be needed to prevent future tragedies in the future.

A small but useful first step to align child welfare systems with community norms would be to make the public aware of decisions that clearly violated these norms and harmed children. The federal government should enforce the requirements of the Child Abuse Prevention and Treatment Act (CAPTA), which as interpreted in the federal Child Welfare Policy Manual, requires states to issue specific information and findings on all child maltreatment fatalities and near fatalities caused by maltreatment. That includes information about past dealings between the children’s families and the child welfare agency. Ultimately, the requirement must be expanded to cover all “egregious incidents” where maltreatment is suspected.² Increased public awareness how child welfare agencies knowingly and routinely leave children in harm’s way may help elevate child welfare into a major issue, not a backwater that gets addressed only when there is a tragedy.

Three family members are awaiting trial for murdering 11-year-old Arabella McCormick in August 2022 and torturing her sisters. A kindergarten aide in Arabella’s class told a reporter that she got a disturbing note from Arabella’s foster mother, who went on to adopt her and then allegedly participate in her murder. “In the envelope, it said, ‘Arabella is,’ and it was line items such as ‘a terrible child,’” she said. “‘She’s a liar. You can’t believe anything she says. She’s a thief. She steals everything. Don’t trust her.’ It was just one thing after another of horrible things that you would never say about a 6-year-old.” The teacher’s aide told the grand jury that she contacted child protective services (CPS) after Arabella arrived at school school in the same dirty clothes on several occasions. She also told CPS that Arabella wasn’t allowed to eat fruit, accept rewards or participate in recess with other children. “And the lady from CPS said to me on the phone — after I told her everything, she said, ‘Well, it could be worse,’” the teacher’s aide told the grand jury. Really? I don’t think most members of the public would agree.

Notes

In fact, child welfare systems initially involved White children only. Black children were originally excluded from public child welfare systems. ↩︎
Both Colorado and Wisconsin release information on cases meeting this description. ↩︎

No progress on child protection reforms in Utah halfway through the legislative session

The death of Gavin Peterson from starvation last year after years of abuse and multiple calls to child protective services regarding his treatment set off an outcry in Utah and around the country. Media reports appeared throughout the country, legislators expressed their outrage, hearings were held, and concerned citizens rallied. But halfway through the legislative session that followed Gavin’s death, it appears that there will be no policy changes that will prevent more children suffering Gavin’s fate. Instead, his name has been invoked to support bills that would not have saved him, and, ironically, legislation that could increase the risks for children like Gavin who are withdrawn from school seems poised for passage.

As described in an earlier post, Gavin Peterson died of starvation in July 2024 at the age of 12, almost a year after his father and stepmother withdrew him from school, ostensibly to homeschool him. Gavin had been the subject of multiple reports to the Utah Division of Child and Family Services (DCFS), including at least four reports from his school describing him as eating food from the trash and with other signs of neglect and abuse. An investigation found no maltreatment but did result in his father and stepmother withdrawing him from school, a common response of abusive parents to being investigated, and too often a precursor of a child’s death from abuse. Gavin’s withdrawal from school was his death warrant, because there were no more caring adults to report on his suffering.

There are several types of legislation that might have helped prevent future Utah children suffering Gavin’s fate. Perhaps most effective would be to increase the protections for homeschooled children. For example, the Make Homeschool Safe Act developed by the Coalition for Responsible Home Education proposes that no person who has been found to have engaged in child abuse or neglect can operate a home school. It is not clear from the limited information provided by DCFS whether Gavin’s stepmother had been found to have committed abuse or neglect, but given that a case was open on the family for a year, it seems likely that she was. In addition, the bill would allow no person to withdraw a child from school for homeschooling within three years of an investigation of potential abuse or neglect unless there is a risk assessment by a child protective services worker and monthly risk assessments for the first 12 months of the child’s withdrawal from school. Such a law, if implemented faithfully, might well have saved Gavin.

But far from placing controls on homeschooling, Utah legislators are bent on removing them in the wake of Gavin’s death. For the past close to two years, Utah has required parents who homeschool their children to sign an affidavit swearing that they have never been convicted of child abuse. Admittedly, this seems to be a pretty toothless requirement, as compared to requiring a check of police and CPS records. But the homeschooling community has decided that even this weak law is offensive, as the Salt Lake Tribune has reported. Homeschooling families thronged the Capitol on February 25 to demonstrate their support for a bill that would eliminate this requirement. Its sponsor, Representative Noeleen Peck, justified the bill by saying the requirement “didn’t work” and was “confusing.” Some districts misinterpreted it to require a background check, she said. Perhaps that misinterpretation–giving the requirement teeth after all–explains the overwhelming support for this bill among homeschooling parents. The Committee voted unanimously to recommend the bill eliminating the requirement.

One bill (HB83) that did get introduced in Gavin’s name would not have protected him, despite being a good bill. It would make it easier for police or social workers to obtain a warrant to view a child and a home for the purposes of investigating a report of child abuse or neglect. This bill addresses a real problem in Utah which gained attention through another horrific abuse case in the same year. Parenting influencer Ruby Franke was starving and torturing her two youngest children. Police tried to check on them, but Franke would not respond to the door and a judge would not issue a warrant to allow them to enter the home. HB83 presumably would have enabled police to obtain a warrant to enter the Franke home and perhaps discover the children’s plight.

The sponsor of HB83, state Rep. Christine Watkins, told the House Judiciary Committee that this bill was in direct response to the cases of Gavin Peterson and the children of Ruby Franke. But the case history that was released by DCFS describes no instance of police or DCFS being denied access to Gavin’s home. DCFS visited the home twice in March, 2023 and interviewed Gavin outside the presence of his parents. But he did not disclose the abuse, probably for fear of retaliation by the abusers. Certainly the difficulty of accessing children at home is a problem worth correcting, but it was not apparently related to Gavin’s death. In any case, the bill did not make it out of its first committee hearing and does not seem likely to advance.

Sadly, it appears that the most consequential bill that will be passed in response to Gavin’s death is a measure that would eliminate the cost of reduced-price school lunches. The bill’s sponsor, House Rep. Tyler Clancy, told KJZZ that Gavin Peterson’s death helped build support for the bill. “It shakes you to your core when you read a story about a young person like Gavin Peterson starving to death,” Clancy said. Clancy’s compassion is commendable, but this bill would not have helped Gavin, who died almost a year after he was removed from school. There is something disturbing about using Gavin’s name to support a bill, however beneficial, that wouldn’t have helped him.

It is hard to understand how well-intentioned legislators, in the aftermath of a tragedy like Gavin Peterson’s death, can use his name to support legislation (no matter how worthwhile) that would not have prevented the tragedy in the first place. Whether it is the lack of bandwidth among legislators and staff or the dominance of preconceived notions about what constitutes the problem. It’s even harder to understand legislators voting to reduce protections for children who are withdrawn from school less than a year after Gavin’s death. The Utah Legislature is not unique in its failure to produce meaningful reforms after tragic failures in child protection. But it is the children trapped in their houses of horror that must pay the price.

How New York keeps the public in the dark about high-profile child abuse and neglect deaths

This essay was originally published on the website of Lives Cut Short, a project to document child maltreatment deaths in the United States since 2022, for which I serve as Senior Project Associate

Jahmeik Modlin was found in a skeletal condition in a Harlem apartment stocked with food. He died the next day, and his three older siblings were hospitalized with severe malnutrition. The family had been on the radar of the Administration for Children’s Services (ACS) since 2019, before Jahmeik was born. But the agency closed its last case with the family in 2022 after determining that the children were safe, a source told the New York Times. A spokeswoman for ACS declined to offer further information, citing state law designed to protect siblings of fatal abuse victims.

According to data states submit to the federal government, about 1800 children die of abuse and neglect every year, but this figure is widely recognized to be an undercount. Among those deaths, studies suggest that between a third and a half involve families who were already known to the child protection system (CPS) through previous reports. Even in other cases where the family had no prior contact with CPS, other systems may have interacted with the child and perhaps could have intervened. Legislators, advocates and the public must have access to timely information about the circumstances leading up to child maltreatment fatalities so they can identify missed opportunities and policy and practice changes necessary to protect children. For that reason, Congress in 1996 added a provision in federal law that requires all states to provide assurances to the federal Department of Health and Human Services that they have provisions for disclosing findings and information regarding child fatalities and near fatalities from maltreatment.

Lives Cut Short surveyed state laws and policies governing access to information about child maltreatment fatalities and near fatalities. The resulting report, Keeping the Public in the Dark: How Federal and State Laws and Policies Prevent Meaningful Disclosure about Child Maltreatment Fatalities and Near Fatalities, shows that most states have such laws and practices but many of them are vague, and many have provisions that conflict with the purpose of ensuring public access to critical information. Among such provisions are those that prohibit releasing information that might harm surviving children in the families where a child was killed or seriously injured by maltreatment.

New York, at first glance, appears to be more transparent than most states in making information and findings about child maltreatment fatalities available to the public. The New York State Office of Children and Family Services (OCFS), which supervises local agencies such as ACS, is required to review all local investigations of child fatalities reported to the State Central Register and to publish a summary report within six months of the investigation. Disclosure of this information, however, occurs only if the state or local commissioner determines that it is not “contrary to the best interests of the child, the child’s siblings or other children in the household.” While the law does not provide a comprehensive definition of “contrary to the best interests,” the OCFS website does explain that OCFS conducts what it calls a “best interests determination,” sometimes assisted by “experts” from the agency’s Statewide Child Fatality Review Team. The process considers “whether publishing a fatality report is contrary to the best interests of a child’s siblings or other children in the household, what effects publication may have on the privacy of children and family, and any potentially detrimental effects publication may have on reuniting and providing services to a family.”

To understand the impact of the “best interests” determination, one needs to know the proportion of child fatalities for which New York withholds reports. The identifying numbers that the state assigns to its child fatality reports provide a useful clue. All these numbers start with a two-letter abbreviation for the region (AL for Albany, BU for Buffalo, etc.), continue with the last two digits of the year, and end with a three-digit number, starting from 001. For example, the first Albany report for 2022 would be identified as AL-22-001. Assuming that all missing numbers represent reports withheld under the “best interests determination,” about one-quarter of reports on 2022 fatalities in New York State were withheld.

The Child Abuse and Neglect Deaths Integrated Database (CANDID), maintained by Lives Cut Short, allows us to determine which child deaths reported in the media had a corresponding fatality report released by New York OCFS. CANDID combines information on child maltreatment fatalities from media reports, official fatality reviews or reports, and other available sources. New York State’s fatality reports do not include names, but they do include the dates of death as well as details about the circumstances. Therefore, one can attempt to match media coverage with the OCFS review of the same fatality. But very few maltreatment deaths occurring in 2022 and covered by the media had an OCFS review released to the public. It appears that the reviews of high-profile deaths that received media coverage were withheld based on “best interest determinations.”

These cases included:

The death of Bryleigh Klino, a profoundly disabled 17-year-old whose parents have been charged with endangering her welfare. Hospital employees observed numerous signs of abuse and neglect on Bryleigh’s body;
The drowning of six-month-old Dalilah Crespo, whose death was ruled a homicide;
The death from abusive head trauma of four-month-old Cairo Dixon-Sanchez, for which his father pleaded guilty;
The fentanyl poisoning death of 11-month-old Liam Sauve, who ingested 23 times the amount of fentanyl that could kill an adult and whose mother pleaded guilty for his death;
The death of three-month old Genevieve Comager, whose father was charged with shaking her to death;
The beating death of nine-year-old Shalom Guifarro, whose mother has been sentenced to 16 years for her killing;
The death of two-year-old Ermias Taylor-Santiago of a fentanyl overdose, which was ruled a homicide;
The death of blunt force trauma of Xavier Johnson, whose mother’s boyfriend was charged with beating him to death;
The fatal heroin overdose death of six-month-old Denny Robinson, found with a heroin bag in his mouth in a house that was connected with a major drug trafficking operation;
The drug and alcohol poisoning of 14-year-old Hailey Hasbrouck, allegedly by her father and his girlfriend, who allegedly gave her the “toxic cocktail;”
The “suspicious” death of seven-year-old Hunter DeGroat, found unresponsive in his home;
The death of two-year-old Aniyah Wyatt-Wright, allegedly punched to death by her father;
The murder of three-year-old Shaquan Butler, beaten to death in a Queens homeless shelter after being reunified with his parents after being removed from them by ACS.

It is probably not a coincidence that OCFS has elected not to release information on most of the egregious fatalities that were covered in the media. Many of the published state fatality reviews concern deaths due to unsafe sleep factors, accidental drownings, and other fatalities that do not result in criminal charges and are therefore never known to the public. It is possible that OCFS is trying to shield the surviving children in the cases listed above because readers may be able to identify them by putting together the reports and the media coverage—as we did. But these are the very cases for which the information is most urgently needed. The nature of these cases suggests the existence of serious and chronic conditions that might have resulted in previous reports and involvement with CPS. Any harm that public release of the report would cause when the incident has already been covered in the media is dubious.
It’s hard to avoid wondering if the exclusion of these cases from disclosure protects the agency more than the children. And to avoid guessing that Jahmeik’s death will join the list of those cases for which reports are never published.

We cannot make progress in the prevention of severe and life-threatening child maltreatment unless legislators, advocates and the public have access to comprehensive information about what led up to these tragic events. Congress tried to provide this access through a provision in federal legislation, but states have couched this requirement in vague language or hedged it with qualifications that prevent the release of critical information—or any information at all in some cases—as in New York. Only Congress can fix the gaps in the federal law, but state legislatures can act in the meantime to ensure their disclosure laws serve the purpose of improving child welfare in their states.

To learn about current law in your state, see the new report: Keeping the Public in the Dark: How Federal and State Laws and Policies Prevent Meaningful Disclosure about Child Maltreatment Fatalities and Near Fatalities.

School shootings and fentanyl overdoses: the uncounted costs of neglecting maltreated children

A fourteen-year-old boy and a fifteen-year-old girl are charged as adults, one for a mass shooting and the other for selling a fentanyl tablet that killed an older teenager. These two young people had something in common–a long history of neglect (and sometimes abuse) by their parents and a failure to intervene by child welfare services despite multiple reports that children were in danger. Ignoring chronically maltreated children when they could have been saved and then locking them up for life is both inhumane and costly. We must intervene to help maltreated children before they are irrevocably damaged by years of abuse and neglect.

On September 4, 2024, fourteen-year-old Colt Gray shot and killed two teachers and two students at Apalachee High School in Winder, Georgia with an AR-15 style rifle given to him by his father. He has been charged as an adult and is awaiting trial. It did not take long for the media to uncover that Colt had grown up in a chronically abusive and neglectful home. As the Washington Post put it in a devastating article, “Colt’s parents, each addicted to drugs and alcohol, were perpetually inattentive, often cruel and sometimes entirely absent, according to family members, neighbors, investigators, police reports and court records.” In November 2022, Colt’s mother, Marcee Gray, left his father, Colin Gray, and moved to southern Georgia with her two younger children. It appears that DCFS had opened a case at some point because In October of 2023, a spot drug-test revealed Marcee’s renewed drug use. Colin Gray was ordered to retrieve the other children, or they would be placed in foster care. Shortly thereafter, it appears that the case was closed.

There is no information from media reports about whether DCFS evaluated Colin Gray for his fitness to take care of his three children or to monitor their well-being in his care before closing the child welfare case. Yet, relatives reported to the New York Post that Colin Gray relentlessly bullied his son, calling him names like “sissy” and “bitch.” The Washington Post reported that Colt first came to the attention of authorities at the age of 11, when his school flagged him for searching the internet for ideas on how to kill his father. In Colin Gray’s custody, Colt never attended eighth grade and was not even registered for school until February 2 of that year. That Christmas, Colin Gray gave Colt his own AR-15 style rifle, in an attempt to “toughen him up,” as relatives told the New York Post. By his fourteenth birthday in January, Colt’s grandmother reported that he was searching the internet for what was wrong with him; she offered to pay for therapy and take him there but his father never signed him up. In July of 2023, Marcee returned from rehab and Colin allowed her to move back in. Colt’s mental health deteriorated even further after his mother’s return, and he talked of hurting himself or others. He registered for high school two weeks late and rarely attended. “Colt was like the thrown-away child,” said his grandmother, who tried in vain to get his father and the school to help him. Five days after his father failed to take him to a crisis mental health center despite his grandmother’s plea, Colt brought his rifle to school and took four lives.

Also charged as an adult was 15-year-old Maylia Sotelo of Green Bay, Wisconsin, the subject of a devastating article by Lizzie Presser of Pro Publica. Maylia’s home had been a “hangout for users and dealers.” Her three older sisters had all been kicked out or left due to their mother’s violence. Maylia’s had been referred to child protective services 20 times before she was finally removed from her home at the age of 14. In a pattern typical of chronic maltreatment, the reports concerned multiple types of neglect, sexual abuse, and physical abuse. Before Maylia turned one, CPS documents show that her mother overdosed on cocaine and Adderall with seven children in her home. When she was five years old, a caller reported that her mother was “high as a kite” and her boyfriend was violent. The next year, another report indicated that there was no food in the home and that the mother was using heroin in front of her children.

When Malia was seven, CPS substantiated a report that a man “opened his pants, pulled out his penis and masturbated” in front of one of Maylia’s sisters. That same year, a woman overdosed on crack in the house and Maylia’s mother “would not call rescue or the police because [she] did not want her children removed,” according to a social worker’s notes. And a school employee reported that Maylia missed half the school year. When Maylia was 14 and her mother became psychotic, Maylia and her sister were finally removed from the home and placed with relatives. But they were given no counseling or assistance with school, according to Pro Publica. Maylia had been smoking weed since fifth grade, then began selling it. By the beginning of tenth grade, she was selling “blues,” pills that were billed as percocet but actually contained filler and fentanyl. She sold a pill to an 18-year-old named Jack McDonough. When he died of an overdose, Maylia was arrested for first-degree reckless homicide.

It is obvious that both Colt Gray and Maylia Sotelo were chronically maltreated children who suffered from multiple types of maltreatment over a period of years. It is also obvious that the systems designed to protect them failed both of these young people. Both families clearly required intervention that did not come when it was needed, though we do not have enough details to make an informed critique of the system’s response. When the child welfare system finally intervened in Malia’s case, it may have been hard to change her trajectory, and it appears that she was left with relatives and received monitoring or services to address her traumatic history. In Colt’s case, the intervention may have also come too late to prevent serious psychological damage. And once they became involved, caseworkers appeared to be focused on his mother and ended the case with the placement of all three children with their father, a parent who had been equally neglectful and failed to take action to protect the children from his wife’s abuse.

Perhaps more intensive in-home services provided earlier could have helped Colt’s and Maylia’s parents address the issues that led them to abuse or neglect their children. If not, perhaps Maylia’s earlier removal from her toxic home, and Colin’s removal to a better environment than either of his parents could provide might have saved these children from the sad fate that awaited them. The approach that is currently in fashion – exemplified by the much touted Family First Prevention Services Act (FFPSA) of 2018 – prescribes the avoidance of foster care at almost any cost. It does, however, promise that parents receive support in parenting their children, whether it is mental health, drug treatment, or parenting training. Child welfare systems have long been providing such support to families in the form of in-home services, and FFPSA was supposed to provide the resources to improve these services. Unfortunately, FFPSA did not acknowledge or support the crucial role of frequent home visits to ensure the children are safe and that they can be removed into foster care if the parents do not cooperate with their plans for addressing their issues and improving their parenting.

Sadly, there is no evidence that increases in family support or child safety monitoring are forthcoming. States are proudly citing drops in their foster care caseloads, with no reporting on what is happening to the children left at home. States are not required to release data on the number of cases opened for in-home services, so we have no idea whether the abused and neglected children who are not being removed are getting any supervision or their parents receiving services. But as I have written, data from the states with the largest and third largest foster care caseloads indicates that the number of children receiving in-home services has not increased to make up for the drop in children removed to foster care; instead it has decreased along with foster care placements, resulting in a decline in the number of children being served overall.

Studies have documented the connection between child maltreatment and crime.¹ Failing to intervene with at-risk children before they resort to crime and subsequently incarcerating them results in unnecessary human suffering, not to mention greater financial costs, than intervening early. If we do not want to remove more children, we must provide intensive services to parents and close monitoring of their children’s safety–and be ready to remove the children as soon as it becomes clear that parents are not going to change before the children are irreparably harmed. Such monitoring is key, because we really do not know what, if anything, works in preventing future maltreatment among parents who have maltreated their children.

This is not the first time that the failure of CPS has been noted in the wake of a heinous crime. I previously wrote about Lisa Montgomery, who was executed on January 12, 2021. She murdered a pregnant woman, cut out the baby, and took it home. It turned out that Lisa Montgomery had a long and horrific history of physical and sexual abuse throughout her childhood, including beatings and bizarre punishments by her mother, rape by her stepfather, and prostitution by both. Sadly, it seems that we have not made much progress since Lisa’s childhood, and current ideological trends run the risk of leaving even more children unprotected in the future.

Notes

See Janet Currie and Erdal Tekin, Does Child Abuse Cause Crime? NBER Working Paper 12171, https://www.nber.org/digest/jan07/does-child-abuse-cause-crime and Todd I. Herrenkohl et al., Effects of Child Maltreatment, Cumulative Victimization Experiences, and Proximal Life Stress on Adult Crime and Antisocial Behavior, https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/250506.pdf.

New Jersey’s claim of declining child maltreatment: ingenuous or disingenuous?

Officials of New Jersey’s Department of Children and Families (DCF) are congratulating themselves on what they call the decline of child abuse and neglect in their state and attributing this ostensible decline to their department’s preventive services. The number of reports of child child maltreatment has actually increased over this period. DCF’s claims are based on a decline in the number of children with substantiated reports–a number which reflects DCF policy and practice much more than it reflects actual abuse and neglect. Whether agency officials are ignorant or attempting to manipulate the data for naive readers, this is no way to keep the public informed about how well New Jersey is protecting its children.

Two DCF officials, Laura Jamey, Director of the Division of Child Protection and Permanency and Sanford Starr, Director of the Division of Family and Community Partnerships, say they have some good news for New Jerseyans. They announce it in an op-ed titled “Maltreatment of NJ kids is decreasing. Here’s wow [sic] we’re preventing it,” which was published in the Asbury Park Press. “By using evidenced-based [sic] prevention strategies and practically addressing families’ needs, we’re happy to report that over the past decade, there has been a steady decline in the number of confirmed cases of child abuse and neglect in our state. In 2016, there were more than 8,000 substantiated and established cases of Child Abuse and Neglect in New Jersey. Last year, that number was only 2,641.”

Wow! sounds impressive, right? But it turns out the authors took as much care with the substance of their commentary as with their capitalization and spelling. That much is clear to anyone who bothers to look at the data that New Jersey shares with the federal government through the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) and which the federal Children’s Bureau shares through its annual Child Maltreatment reports. The data for 2023 have not yet been published by the Bureau, but the figures below represent what New Jersey reported for Federal Fiscal Years (FFY) 2016 to 2022, which ended on September 30, 2022.

Federal Fiscal Year	Referrals	Children Receiving an Investigation or Alternative response	Children receiving a “substantiated” disposition/percent of referrals
2016	56,014	73,889	8,264 (11.2%)
2017	57,026	74,393	6,614 (11.6%)
2018	59, 428	77,661	6,008 (10.1%)
2019	60,934	78,741	5,132 (8.4%)
2020	52,853	70,179	3,655 (6.9%)
2021	48,781	66,321	3,188 (6.5%)
2022	57,068	74,766	3,146 (5.5%)

Sources: Child Maltreatment 2016-2022, Children’s Bureau, Administration on Children and Families

Jamey and Starr cited only the number of substantiated cases of maltreatment. But that figure has meaning only in the context of two figures that represent earlier steps in the process, which are always discussed first in the Child Maltreatment reports. “Referrals” is the child welfare system’s term for reports to the state child protective services hotline. As you can see, those reports increased slightly in New Jersey from 56,014 in FFY2016 to 60,934 in FFY2019. There was a significant drop in referrals during the COVID pandemic in FFY2020 and FFY2021, and then a rebound to 57,068 in FFY 2022, just slightly higher than the number in 2016.

The number of children who were the subject of an investigation also dipped during COVID (in response to the drop in referrals) and bounced back up to a level that was slightly higher than that of 2016. But the number of cases that received a disposition of “substantiated” (which means an investigation concluded that a preponderance of the evidence indicated that abuse and neglect occurred) fell every year, with especially large drops in 2017 and during the COVID pandemic. And according to Jamey and Staff, that number fell even further to 2,641 in 2023, which means the number of children with substantiated referrals had dropped by 68 percent since FFY2016. And the number of children receiving a substantiated disposition as a percent of all referrals fell by half–from 11.2 percent to 5.5 percent, in that period.

So what explains this large drop in children with substantiated dispositions during a period of nine years? In its commentary in Child Maltreatment 2017 (CM2017), New Jersey attributed the one-year drop in children with substantiated dispositions from FFY 2016 to FFY2017 to a revised disposition model it adopted in April 2013.¹ But after FFY2017, DCF provided no explanations other than regularly repeating its statement in 2018 that “the decrease in the number of substantiated victims “remains consistent with prior years and shows a continued trend in the decrease of victimization rates.” In CM2022, DCF simply acknowledged without explaining that “[d]espite the number of CPS referrals increasing from FFY 2021 to FFY 2022, the number of child victims continues to decrease. The rate in which New Jersey substantiated reports also decreased from FFY 2021 to FFY 2022.”

Research suggests that substantiation decisions are not very accurate and that a report to the hotline predicts future maltreatment reports and developmental outcomes almost as well as a substantiated report.² So it just does not seem plausible that child maltreatment could have dropped by over half while the number of reports increased. There is one possible explanation for this decline, which I raised in a 2021 blog. New Jersey is one of many states that is increasingly using a practice called “kinship diversion.” Kinship diversion occurs when social workers determine that a child cannot remain safely with the parents or guardians. Instead of taking custody of a child, the agency facilitates placing the child with a relative or family friend. If this occurs in the context of an investigation, kinship diversion may result in a finding of “unsubstantiated” (or in New Jersey, “unfounded” or “not established”) even when abuse or neglect has occurred, on the grounds that the child is now safe with the relative. We have no idea how widespread kinship diversion is in New Jersey or how often it results in an “unfounded” or “not established” finding. However, the system of informal kinship care created by kinship diversion has been called America’s hidden foster care system and nationwide it appears to dwarf the provision of kinship care within the foster care system.

There is no way of knowing how much, if any, of the drop in child maltreatment substantiations is accounted for by kinship diversion. If diversion accounts for a substantial portion of the drop, that points to serious problems with the practice. It means not only that DCF is undercounting incidents of child abuse or neglect but also that a parent who committed serious maltreatment would not show up as having a substantiated report, possibly affecting decisions on future allegations against that parent. I described some of the other problems with kinship diversion, such as the lack of support for the child and relatives, the possibility that the caregiver will return the child to the an unsafe home, the possible placement of children with inadequately-vetted relatives, and the lack of due process and services for the parents, in another post.

Despite their lack of explanation in their annual commentaries designed for federal employees and child welfare specialists to read, DCF officials have offered the public an optimistic explanation for the drop in maltreatment substantiations. “We’ve worked to transform New Jersey’s child welfare system to support and strengthen families who are struggling to meet their basic needs rather than separating them. A family unable to provide clean clothes may need a supportive neighbor who can offer a ride to the local laundromat. A family struggling to put food on the table may need to be connected with a local food bank.” We have already shown that this decline does not indicate a decline in actual maltreatment, but this attempt to tie it to simple casework like finding a family a ride to a laundromat is simply not believable.

The problem is not just an op-ed that few will read. As quoted in NJ Spotlight News, the Commissioner of DCF told a legislative committee that “Working together, we have achieved so much for New Jersey’s families, including the lowest rate of family separations in the country, one of the lowest rates of child maltreatment and repeat maltreatment in the country.” This was quoted as part of a congratulatory article about how New Jersey has become a “national leader in child welfare.” it is unfortunate that this public media outlet simply echoed the Department’s rosy view, making no attempt to verify their claims by consulting the data.

The misuse of data by high officials of New Jersey’s child welfare agency raises an uncomfortable question. Is it really possible that these leaders believe that child maltreatment has declined by 68 percent since 2016? All I can say is that their statement reflects either ignorance or a cynical disregard for the truth. Neither of these options reflects well on the leadership’s moral or intellectual capacity to serve their state’s most vulnerable children and families.

Notes

Before the new framework, New Jersey had only two investigation dispositions: unfounded and substantiated. The new model added two new dispositions: established and not established, which fall on a continuum between “substantiated” and “unfounded.” DCF explains that the cases that receive the “established” disposition are coded as “substantiated” in NCANDS, so it is possible that finding some children who would have been substantiated as “not established” instead contributed to the drop in substantiations. ↩︎
Theodore Cross and Cecilia Casanueva, “Caseworker Judgments and Substantiation,” Child Maltreatment, 14, 1 (2009): 38-52; Desmond K. Runyan et al, “Describing Maltreatment: Do child protective services reports and research definitions agree?” Child Abuse and Neglect 29 (2005): 461-477; Brett Drake, “Unraveling ‘Unsubstantiated,’” Child Maltreatment, August 1996; and Amy M. Smith Slep and Richard E. Heyman, “Creating and Field-Testing Child Maltreatment Definitions: Improving the Reliability of Substantiation Determinations,” Child Maltreatment, 11, 3 (August 2006): 217-236. Brett Drake, Melissa Jonson-Reid, Ineke Wy and Silke Chung, “Substantiation and Recidivism,” Child Maltreatment 8,4 (2003): 248-260; Jon M. Hussey et al., “Defining maltreatment according to substantiation: Distinction without a difference?” Child Abuse and Neglect 29 (2005): 479-492; Patricia L. Kohl, Melissa Jonson-Reid, and Brett Drake, “Time to Leave Substantiation Behind: Findings from a National Probability Study,” Child Maltreatment, 14 (2009), 17-26; Jeffrey Leiter, Kristen A. Myers, and Matthew T. Zingraff, “Substantiated and unsubstantiated cases of child maltreatment: do their consequences differ?” Social Work Research 18 (1994): 67-82; and Diana J. English et al, “Causes and Consequences of the Substantiation Decision in Washington State Child Protective Services,” Children and Youth Services Review, 24, 11 (2002): 817-851. ↩︎

Lives cut short: a new project to document child maltreatment fatalities

ABC News: Joanna, Terri and Sierra Denton-Carrillo

On May 2, 2024, an extraordinary gathering was held in Washington, DC. It brought together scholars, advocates, and family members of children who lost their lives to abuse and neglect to mark the inauguration of a new project, Lives Cut Short. This project, under the auspices of the American Enterprise Institute and University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, will shed a light on the lives and deaths of abused and neglected children, many of which would never otherwise be known to the public. I am proud to be a part of this project, along with Naomi Schaefer-Riley AEI’s point person on child welfare, and eminent child welfare scholars, Emily Putnam-Hornstein of UNC-Chapel Hill and Sarah Font of Penn State. If you missed the event, you can watch it here.

We are grateful that family members of two children who died of abuse were able to join us for our launch. One of these special guests was the aunt of Joanna (age three), Terry (age two) and Sierra (age six months) Denton-Carrillo, who were drowned by their mother despite desperate efforts by their father to warn the Los Angeles Department of Child and Family Services (DCFS) and LAPD about her deteriorating mental state. Also in attendance was the aunt of Sophia Mason, who was physically and sexually abused and forced to live in a metal shed by her mother and mother’s boyfriend in the months before she died. Alameda County (California) DCFS social workers ignored repeated warnings from school staff and medical professionals and family members about Sophia’s injuries and the danger she was in.

About 1,900 children died of maltreatment in the United States in 2022, according to national statistics that are known to be greatly underestimated. All of these children of them were likely known to a family member who could have reported or intervened. At one time, the fact that a large number of children died of abuse or neglect was a big national issue. A national coalition worked to mobilize support for the funding of the Protect Our Kids Act of 2012, which authorized the Commission to Eliminate Child Abuse and Neglect Fatalities (CECANF) and charged it with developing a national strategy to reduce fatalities from child abuse and neglect. CECANF began work in 2014, holding public hearings around the country. In March 2016, after two years of work, it published Within Our Reach: A National Strategy to Eliminate Child Abuse and Negect Fatalities, a 167-page report with 110 recommendations. Eight years later, the report is forgotten, the recommendations disregarded, and mentioning the issue is considered gauche in ruling circles. An office founded to monitor the progress of this state and local efforts to monitor the CECANF recommendations produced a “First Progress Report” and appears to have been disbanded.

Child welfare leaders, legislators and advocates appear to have lost interest in child maltreatment fatalities. As Naomi Schaefer Riley put it at the project launch, she often hears that talking about child maltreatment deaths is “letting the tail wag the dog.” We can’t make policy based on rare events and small numbers, she is often told. Yet, as she stated, these numbers are not small at all. They far surpass the number of people killed in mass shootings, that get a lot more attention. Perhaps more importantly, if child maltreatment is an iceberg, the fatalities represent the part we cannot see. How many more children are suffering in silence?

The Lives Cut Short project has multiple goals. We seek to draw attention to this issue, knowing that public attention is necessary to build up support for reform. We hope to provide a context for media outlets, who often cover an incident in their area without any knowledge of the context. We will draw attention how differently states are defining, identifying, and reporting child maltreatment fatalities, and how this results in a final tally that is like adding apples to oranges, grapes and other fruit, but in any case is underestimated. Already posted on our website is a report that illustrates this diversity in great detail, showing how the numbers that states report to the federal government reflect their definitions and reporting practices as much or more than they reflect the actual rates of child maltreatment. Entitled A Jumble of Standards: How State and Federal Authorities Have Underestimated Child Maltreatment Fatalities, the report may be the only available resource that describes this diversity in state reporting in such detail. And as several speakers explained on May 2, this diversity creates a paradoxical situation in which states that are more transparent and conscientious about reporting child fatalities end up looking like they have higher fatality rates.

The core of Lives Cut Short is a database called CANDID, which consists of records of children who died of abuse or neglect since 2022 whose deaths that fit the federal definition of maltreatment fatalities–those that are caused by maltreatment or for which maltreatment was a contributing factor. All of the data come from publicly available sources, including media reports and official case summaries or reports from states. Right now, the website enables the user to sort the children by state and age. Clicking on each child’s name will allow the reader to access media and non-media sources of information about the circumstances under which the child died. A detailed state-by-state page provides links to each state’s statute governing disclosure of child fatality information as well as links to any child fatality notifications, case summaries, and case reviews, that each state provides.

We will continue both to add child fatalities and to broaden the information on each death. As our searches yield new media reports and state notifications and reviews, which often appear as much as two years after a child’s death, we will add them to our census of child deaths. We plan to seek out other sources, such as Medical Examiner reports, to learn about cases of which we are still unaware. To broaden the information on each case, we have already begun to enter detailed data about these deaths in a detailed database that will record demographic characteristics of the children and families, causes of death, perpetrator characteristics and risk factors, past involvement with CPS and other services, and systemic factors that may have prevented the discover of these children’s plight before it was too late. By bringing together media reports, official case summaries, and other sources such as wrongful death suits, we will be able to provide a richer description than any one source can provide. This information can then be analyzed to provide valuable information to help prevent such fatalities in the future.

We hope that Lives Cut Short will restart the conversation about how to prevent child maltreatment fatalities, and more broadly, redirect the conversation about how to prevent child maltreatment fatalities, which must start with an honest consideration of what serious child abuse or neglect means. Even more broadly, perhaps it will even change the conversation around child welfare services, bringing child safety and well-being back into focus, but also bringing in other systems and their responsibility to vulnerable children. These goals may be ambitious, but we cannot afford to fail.

Child Welfare Update: February 2024

Greetings to my faithful readers! I’m trying out a different format for Child Welfare Monitor–a monthly newsletter format that highlights events and information that catch my eye. I’m not ruling out a single-issue piece now and then, particularly when there is a major new report or data source to discuss and analyze. Please let me know what you think of the new format. If you can think of a more exciting title than “Child Welfare Update,” let me know. And if you do find this to be a useful resource, please share it with your colleagues.

Adam Montgomery convicted of Harmony Montgomery’s death

In December 2021, Manchester, New Hampshire Police announced the disappearance of Harmony Montgomery, who would have been six years old if she were alive. We learned that Harmony’s noncustodial mother, Crystal Sorey, had called the police a month earlier to say that she had not seen or heard from her daughter since April 2019, two-and-a-half years earlier. The country was rapidly transfixed by the search for Harmony. We soon learned that the little girl, who was blind in one eye, had first been removed from Sorey at the age of two months by the Massachusetts Department of Children and Families (DCF) due to Sorey’s substance abuse. Harmony’s father, Adam Montgomery, was in jail at the time. Harmony was returned to her mother at seven months, and removed again at ten months. At almost three years old, and after two straight years in foster care with the same family that fostered her from the start and wanted to adopt her, Harmony was returned to her mother for the second time. At age three-and-a-half, Harmony was removed from her mother for the third time. Since Harmony was first removed, Adam Montgomery had been released from prison and begun visiting her. In February, 2018, a judge awarded Montgomery immediate custody of Harmony, without waiting for an assessment of his wife or a study of his living situation in New Hampshire.

A shattering report by the Massachusetts Child Advocate revealed the many missteps by all the professionals tasked with keeping Harmony safe. The OCA concluded that “Harmony’s individual needs, wellbeing, and safety were not prioritized or considered on an equal footing with the assertion of her parents’ rights to care for her in any aspect of the decision making by any state entity.”

Two years after the search for Harmony began, Adam Montgomery has been convicted of her death, thanks to the testimony of his wife. She told prosecutors that after Harmony soiled her bed at night he beat her viciously on the head in the morning of December 9, 2019 and again that afternoon in the car when she soiled herself once more. He then injected opioids and ate fast food as Harmony died of her injuries in the back of the car. He concealed Harmony’s body for months until renting a U-Haul and dumping her remains somewhere outside Boston. Her body has never been found. Montgomery is already serving 32 1/2 years in prison for another case and I hope he will never see the light of day, but what about all the professionals who failed to prioritize Harmony’s needs? And what has Massachusetts done to ensure that there will be no more Harmonies? The adoptive parents of Harmony’s brother have been speaking out; I assume Harmony’s foster parents are too devastated to do so, but their hearts must be broken.

Race trumps child welfare I: Black children don’t get attached?

Harmony Montgomery’s case illustrates, among other things, what happens when the importance of attachment for young children is disregarded. Attachment theory, which is widely accepted and taught in classes on psychology, social work and human development, posits that a strong attachment is central to the development of infants and affects their brain development and their ability to form relationships throughout life. The critical role of attachment in human development, which has been confirmed in mammals as well as humans, is the reason that the Adoption and Safe Families Act (ASFA) set a timeline requiring states to file for termination of parental rights after a child had spent 15 of the last 22 months in foster care. That is the deadline that Harmony’s team disregarded when they returned her to her mother after two years in foster care and continued to work with both parents after her return to foster care at the age of three-and-a-half. The continued disruptions were so devastating for Harmony that her foster parents, according to the OCA, could no longer meet her needs when she was placed with them for the third time, and asked that she be transferred to a specialized therapeutic home.

But some lawyers that counsel parents in child protection cases are being told that attachment theory does not apply to Black children. In Race Trumps Child Welfare, Naomi Schaefer Riley calls attention to a paper called “The Weaponization of Whiteness in Child Welfare,” originally published by the National Association of Counsel for Children. The paper calls attachment theory a “tool to justify the separation of families” and a manifestation of “racism in psychology.” The authors take aim at professionals who utilize attachment theory to argue for the adoption of Black children by White foster families who have raised them from infancy rather than returning them to their parents or placing them with kin. They argue that a Black child who has lived with a White foster family for the entire two-and-a-half years of his life should be placed with a relative who has never even seen the child. Black families, they say, belong to a collective culture, which emphasizes the needs of the group as a whole over the needs of an individual. Thus, any suffering to an individual child, they imply, is justified by the gain to the group–though it is hard to understand how Black people as a whole gain from the traumatization of young Black children.

Race Trumps Child Welfare II: ABA “addressing bias in medical mandated reporting” in Michigan

The American Bar Association (ABA) has announced that its Center for Children and the Law is piloting a new initiative in Michigan “to address overreporting by medical professionals of Black, Indigenous and Latino/a children to the child welfare system.” Without a footnote, the ABA reports that “injuries in Black children are 9 times more likely than those in White children to be reported as abuse despite evidence that child abuse and neglect occur at equal rates across races.” (Italics are mine.) Equal across races? I wonder what data they are using. While I am the first to acknowledge that maltreatment substantiation rates may not reflect actual incidence of abuse or neglect, evidence suggests that the two-to-one Blsck-White difference in child maltreatment substantiation rates is likely an understatement, not an overstatement. Moreover, Latino children nationwide are not reported to CPS disproportionately to their share of the population.

The pilots, funded by the Children’s Bureau, will use a “multisystem approach developed by the ABA’s Stop Overreporting Our People (STOP) project” to “address each decision made from the time a medical provider has a concern about maltreatment through child welfare hotline report and investigation to the decision of the judicial officer to remove the child from the home.” In Michigan, according to Child Maltreatment 2022, of the 174,000 referrals to the hotline in Federal Fiscal Year 2022, about 68,000 were screened in, about 139,000 children received an investigation or alternative response (down 12 percent from the previous year), and 23,500 were substantiated as victims of abuse or neglect–a whopping 37.7 percent drop over the previous year. Of those “victims,” a total of 2,760 or 11 percent were placed in foster care–along with an additional 956 children who were not substantiated as victims but may have been siblings who were deemed to be equally endangered. Despite the precipitous drops in investigations and substantiations and the very low proportion of children substantiated as victims that were placed in foster care, the ABA isn’t satisfied…or doesn’t bother to look at data. The Michigan pilots will also focus on how doctors are trained to report maltreatment, according to the ABA. Discouraging doctors from reporting the signs that they are uniquely trained to spot may not strike all readers as a good idea.

Where was CPS?

Utah: Abuse in plain sight: Ruby Franke, a parenting influencer who achieved fame by promoting her strict parenting style, was sentenced to up to thirty years after pleading guilty to aggravated child abuse of two of her children. Franke rose to prominence with a youtube channel called 8 Passengers (now taken down) that documented her life with her husband and six children and was criticized for promoting abusive discipline methods. She eventually formed a business partnership with another woman named Jodi Hildebrandt, who encouraged and participated in the abuse of Franke’s children. Both women were arrested in August 2023, after one of Franke’s children escaped the home and ran to a neighbor’s house asking for food and water. The neighbor noticed the child’s open wounds, duct tape around his ankles and wrists and emaciation and called the police. After the arrest, the oldest daughter posted on social media that: “We’ve been trying to tell the police and CPS for years about this, and so glad they finally decided to step up.” “Several of us tried to help,” one neighbor told the Salt Lake Tribune. “I know people left food on doorsteps knowing the kids might not be eating; I know people were making phone calls to DCFS, to the police — people really did try and care. No one was looking the other way.”

New Mexico: $5.5 million settlement reached in eight-year-old girl’s brutal death: The Santa Fe New Mexican reports that the New Mexico Children Youth and Families Department (CFYD) has agreed to pay $5.5 million to the brother and half-siblings of Samantha Rubino, acknowledging that it placed Samantha and her brother in the care of a man (Juan Lerma) with a history of child abuse and domestic violence, who had been investigated once before for abusing her and had not seen either Samantha or her brother for two years. Samantha died of blunt force trauma to the head, and Lerma placed her body in the trash. This is the latest in a series of big-money settlements by CYFD, funded by the taxpayers. New Mexico’s system is in crisis, with a backlog of 2,000 investigations of abuse and neglect. Is it too much to hope that the legislature will decide it is better to spend money up front to keep children safe than to pay massive settlements to their survivors?

The march continues to remove protections for homeschooled children

The powerful homeschool lobby continues its crusade to eliminate the few regulations that still exist to protect homeschooled children. In Nebraska, LB 1027 would eliminate two of the three minimal documents required for homeschool enrollments. It would bar school districts and Health and Human Services from investigating educational neglect in a homeschool setting. And it would give one parent the power to make homeschooling decisions without input from the other parent. The unicameral legislature’s Education Committee heard testimony from the Nebraska Christian Home Educators Association, the president of a Christian homeschoolers’ co-op, and another homeschooling parent. There was no testimony against the bill. The Education Committee has recommended the bill, and it is headed for a floor vote.

In West Virginia, legislators have tried to bar abusive parents from homeschooling ever since an eight-year-old girl named Raylee Browning died of sepsis, possibly caused by drinking toilet water, in 2018. Teachers had called CPS multiple times because Raylee was constantly hungry and covered in bruises. To avoid further problems, her guardians removed her from school for the ostensible purpose of homeschooling, thus enabling them to torture ber to death without interference. Every year since 2019, legislators have introduced Raylee’s Law, which would prohibit homeschooling if the parent or home educator had a pending investigation for child abuse or neglect or had been convicted of abuse, neglect or domestic violence. This very modest bill, which probably wouldn’t even have saved Raylee because her guardians did not have a pending investigation when they withdrew her from school, nor were they convicted of abuse, has never gotten through the legislature. This year it was voted down in the Education Committee by 15-5 after several legislators outlined their concerns–such as the fear that it would force children to enter public school before an investigation could be completed!

This year, the sponsors of Raylee’s Law managed to get a version of the legislation included in a bill that removes certain testing requirements for homeschooled children, and it passed by a voice vote. Unfortunately the amendment that passed was watered down further from the original bill, which itself was very weak The amendment that passed requires that a parent cannot withdraw a child for homeschooling if there is a pending child abuse or neglect investigation. But if the complaint is not substantiated within 14 days, the superintendent must authorize homeschooling. And the bill to which it was attached (HB 5180) reduces protection of homeschooled children by removing the requirement that parents submit academic assessments for homeschooled children in certain grades, as well as the requirement that the parent or home educator submit evidence that they have a high school or post-secondary degree.

Readers who care about the protection of homeschooled children and the drastic disproportion of power between homeschooling parents and advocates for their children should give to one of my favorite organizations, the Coalition for Responsible Home Education. They are doing their best on a shoestring budget, but they can’t afford to go to every state where protective legislation is threatened.

From the “Are you kidding me?” department

“Safe Haven laws” are a way for new parents who are not ready to raise a child to surrender their newborns safely without any questions or legal consequences. The laws exist in all 50 states. The Committee to Eliminate Child Abuse and Neglect Fatalities has endorsed these laws as a way to protect vulnerable infants and recommended that they be amended to extend the age of protected infants to age 1 and to expand the types of safe havens allowed. And it turns out that this option has existed in Europe since Pope Innocent III required churches to install “Foundling Wheels” in 1198!

In New Mexico, mothers are told they can anonymously surrender their infants through “safe haven baby boxes” located around the state. But recent media coverage from local stations KRQE and KOB4 has revealed the state’s Children Youth and Families Department (CYFD) has been investigating these surrenders–because they are required to do so by the state’s safe haven law. CYFD Secretary Teresa Casados told KRQE that “state law requires CYFD to investigate to ensure the mother was not forced to give up her baby, to make sure she is safe, and to inform the father of the child as well.” (She was apparently not asked what would happen if the father had raped or abused the mother.) She also explained that the Indian Child Welfare Act (ICWA) requires CYFD to look into each case and notify “all the tribes and pueblos” to ensure they are following the Act’s requirement that placement with a Native family be preferred. It is not clear that any other state has interpreted ICWA this way. New Mexico legislators rushed to draft legislation to retain the right of mothers to surrender their infants safely and anonymously, but the short session ended before a bill could be passed.

Never underestimate a persistent child advocate

John Hill, the Investigative Editor at Civil Beat, a nonprofit news outlet in Honolulu, Hawaii, has never given up on his quest to find out how a six-year-old girl named Ariel Sellers was placed with Lehua and Isaac Kalua, the adoptive parents who tortured her, culminating in her murder two-and-a-half years ago. The Kaluas have been charged with murder and abuse of both Ariel and her then 12-year-old sister, among other charges. The prosecution alleges that Ariel was kept in a dog cage and denied food, and that Lehua Kalua caused her death by duct-taping her mouth and nose. For more than two years, according to Hill, the Hawaii Department of Human Services has stonewalled in accounting for its actions in the adoption of Ariel, who was renamed “Isabella Kalua” by her adoptive parents. But Hawaii’s Public First Law Center, motivated by a series of columns written by Hill, has filed a motion to receive the foster and adoption records for Ariel and her siblings. Now Hill is asking uncomfortable questions about the January 2024 death of 10-year-old Geanna Bradley, who was also allegedly tortured and starved to death by her adoptive parents.

In a bizarre twist, the Honolulu Star Advertiser has reported that the Kaluas have retained custody over Isabella’s three sisters, who were removed from the home in September 2021. But apparently the state of Hawaii hasn’t moved to terminate the parental rights of the Kaluas. A special master appointed to oversee the interests of Ariel’s sisters is concerned that the failure to terminate the rights of the Kaluas will interfere with efforts to find permanent families and educational opportunities for the girls. (And already has, I would think!)

The guaranteed income craze continues

At its February oversight hearing, the Director of the District of Columbia Child and Family Services Agency announced a forthcoming grant from the Doris Duke Foundation to a guaranteed income for some low-income families. The announcement was greeted with congratulations from the Council Chair who referenced the great results from the recent Strong Families, Strong Futures pilot, which provided 132 new and expecting mothers with $10,800 in the course of a year. I don’t know where she got her information. An article in the Washington Post reported on interviews with three of the mothers participating in the pilot. One of the mothers took the money as a lump sum. Setting aside about $5,000 for essential expenses, she used the remaining money on a $6,000 trip to Miami preceded by the purchase of new clothes, shoes, gadgets and toys for all of her three children and a $180 hair and nails treatment for herself. Another mother decided to spend $525 on a birthday party for her one-year-old, who clearly couldn’t appreciate it. Program coordinators said that the mothers reported spending most of their funds on needs such as housing, food and transportation. But I’m not sure how I feel as a DC taxpayer to see my money spent in ways that I personally find wasteful, nor am I sure that allowing such spending provides appropriate training in how to budget scarce resources. Such no-strings-attached money giveaways might not be the best use of taxpayer money, even if foundations choose to support it.

And the prize for cynical use of data goes to….

Kentucky! The State’s Cabinet for Health and Family Services (CHFS) is crowing about Kentucky’s drop from the highest rate of child maltreatment “victimization” to number 13 among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. In a statement reported by Spectrum News1, CHFS said this improvement “demonstrates the efforts made by the Department for Community Based Services and its many partners to increase the provision of child welfare prevention services and reduce child abuse and neglect within the Commonwealth.” But child advocates and family court judges are not convinced, citing a longstanding problem with hotline workers screening out cases that should be investigated–exacerbated by the adoption of an actuarial screening tool at the hotline in April 2022. The report quotes two family court judges and a CASA program director who linked child deaths to the failure to investigate prior reports involving the same families. According to one judge, “The alarm has to be sounded because I’m not joking when I say children are perishing in the state of Kentucky because of this ‘Structured Decision Making’ tool….'” The judges are right. One has only to look at Kentucky’s commentary in the Children’s Bureau’s report, Child Maltreatment 2022.

An overall decrease for child victims was observed between FFY 2021 and FFY 2022.
Kentucky has worked diligently over the past several years to implement a safety model
which includes the implementation of SDM® Intake Assessment Tool and a thorough review and modification of the state’s acceptance criteria to ensure a focus upon children and families with true safety threats versus risk factors. This shift in the approach to the work may have contributed to the decrease in child victims this year.
Children’s Bureau, Child Maltreatment 2022, p. 13

In other words, they changed the screening criteria to screen out more cases and voilà! Fewer child victims! Amazing! The percentage of referrals that was screened in decreased from 45.5 percent in 2021 to 39.9 percent in 2022, and the maltreatment substantiation rate decreased from 14.9 to 12.3 per thousand children during the same period. But both of these rates have been decreasing since FFY 2018, so more factors than the new screening tool are likely responsible. It’s unlikely that a decrease in actual maltreatment is among them.

The placement and workforce crises continue

Every month brings another crop of articles on the intertwined placement and workforce shortages plaguing child welfare. February’s news on the placement crisis included a story from Texas Public Radio reporting on the release of hundreds of incident reports about “Children Without Placements” in the state from 2021 to 2023. They include stories of children squaring off to fight each other in the hallway of a Houston hotel that resulted in the hospitalization of one youth. These incidents, occurring at a rate of about two a day, often involved injured staff, injured youth, and calls to police.

In a state that requires some social workers to supervise youths in hotels and other unlicensed placements, its not surprising that about one in four caseworkers left the job in January, according to the head of the Department of Family and Protective Services (DFPS). And even workers who don’t have to supervise unruly youths are dealing with untenable caseloads and terrible working conditions. Some states are taking action to attract and retain workers. The Governor of Maine announced a series of three one-time lump-sum payments of $1,000 to recruit and retain child welfare workers. Let us hope it is enough to reduce the state’s high caseloads.

And now for some good news: efforts to keep siblings together

It’s always nice to read about people who see a need and create a program to meet it. February brought news of two new “foster care villages” to house larger sibling groups, an idea I have promoted in the past. In California, the actor Christian Bale achieved a dream he has nurtured for 16 years–breaking ground on Together California, a new foster home community in Palmdale, Los Angeles County. The project will include a dozen foster homes built to accommodate up to six siblings and staffed by full time, professional foster parents. A 7,000-square foot community center will offer academic, therapeutic, social, and recreational activities for young people in the foster homes and the surrounding community, which is very short on such resources.

In South Carolina, a new foster care “village” called Thornwell is transforming old houses built about 100 years ago to house foster families and large sibling groups. Two homes are in use, a third is under renovation and more homes await renovation provided the funds and parents can be found. Foster parents will pay one dollar of rent per month and receive free utilities. Children will be eligible for Thornwell’s early learning center, charter school, and recreational facilities. Here’s hoping for more programs like Together California and Thornwell!

Child Maltreatment 2022: reports increase but response lags

“Child Maltreatment Victims Have Decreased for the Past Five Years to a New Low,” proclaimed the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) as it released Child Maltreatment 2022, its long-awaited annual compendium of child maltreatment data shared by the states. Contrary to the headline, the report says nothing about the actual incidence of child abuse and neglect. It does show that in Federal Fiscal Year 2022, calls to child protective services hotlines almost rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. But the number of investigations and assessments that CPS undertook in response to these calls did not bounce back as much as calls, and states are confirming even fewer allegations of maltreatment as they did in FFY 2021 and 2022. Moreover, child fatalities are up for the fifth year in a row. Some of the most striking and interesting results are discussed below, though this is not an exhaustive summary of the report’s contents.

Referrals and Reports

The annual Child Maltreatment reports, produced by the Children’s Bureau of ACF are based on data that states submit to the National Child Abuse and Neglect (NCANDS) data system, and this latest report concerns Federal Fiscal Year (FFY) 2022, which ended on September 30, 2022. NCANDS uses the term “referrals” to connote contacts to child protective services (CPS) hotlines. In 2020, the number of referrals dropped sharply as schools closed and children vanished into their homes. In FY 2021, with some opening of schools and society, the referral rate rose slightly but was still much less than in FFY 2019. But in FFY 2022, the referral rate bounced back to 58.6 per 1,000 children, bringing it close to the rate of 59.7 per 1,000 in FFY 2019. Some states mentioned in their commentaries that the pandemic continued to suppress referrals somewhat in FFY 2022, which began in October 2021. That fall and winter in particular, there were still temporary school building closures and increases in absenteeism due to big waves of infection. This continued pandemic effect may help explain the failure of referrals to reach their 2019 level.

As usual, the state-by-state tables document huge differences in referral rates, from 21.1 per 1,000 children in Hawaii to 180.7 per 1,000 in Vermont. Vermont reports in its commentary that its very high referral rate reflects that the state counts all calls to the hotline as referrals, suggesting that most states do not do so. And indeed, Connecticut and Alabama report that none of the calls that are assigned to alternative response are included in NCANDS, resulting in a far lower number of calls than the number they actually receive. Louisiana reports that some referrals are neither screened out nor accepted; these are calls related to open investigations or in-home or out-of-home service cases; it appears that these are not counted as referrals at all. These inconsistencies between states make it difficult to interpret state-by-state differences in referral rates.

Once a state agency receives a referral, it will be screened in or out by hotline staff. In general, referrals are screened out if they are deemed not to contain an allegation of child abuse or neglect, contain too little information to act on, are more appropriately assigned to another agency, or for some other reason do not fall under the mandate of the child welfare agency. In NCANDS, a referral becomes a “report” once it is screened in, and it then is assigned for an investigation or alternative response. The 47 jurisdictions that reported both screened-in and screened-out referrals collectively reported screening in 49.5 percent of referrals and screening out 50.5 percent. The national screened-in referral rate was 29.0 per 1,000 children, an increase of one percentage point from the rate in FFY 2021. In that year, as shown in Child Maltreatment 2021, the 46 states reporting screened in 51.5 percent of referrals and screened out 48.5 percent. So as the number of referrals increased, it appears that the states screened in a lower percentage of them.

State by state differences in the percentage of referrals that are screened in were vast; ranging from 16.9 percent of referrals to 98.7 percent in Alabama. But as discussed above, differences in which calls are reported in NCANDS will affect these percentages, making the data hard to interpret. Some of the very high rates reported, such as the 98.7 percent for Alabama, and Texas’s reported 84.5 percent, are hard to understand.

Indiana’s commentary provides an example of how a state can purposely reduce its screen-in rate. The state reported that the Department of Children’s Services “partnered with the Capacity Building Center for States as well as ran internal events targeted at reducing our screen-in rate.” Added to the types of allegations to be screened out during FFY 2021 were “sexting concerns among adolescents,” “pre-adolescent children exhibiting potentially sexually maladaptive behaviors,” and “educational neglect.” Some child advocates might be concerned about excluding these types of allegations, as all of them could indicate serious problems in the home, and the exclusion of educational neglect is particularly surprising. Perhaps the changed screening guidelines are one reason the number of Indiana children receiving an investigation or alternative response fell from 139,343 in 2020 to to 123,644 in 2022, a decrease of 11.6 percent.

Screened-in Referrals by Referral Source

Before the pandemic, teachers were the most common source of screened-in referrals, submitting 21 percent of all referrals that were screened in in FFY 2019. They lost that position in FFY 2020 with the pandemic school closures, while legal and law enforcement personnel increased their share of reports. It is not surprising that teachers did not recoup their leading role in 2021, since many students were still attending school virtually for some part of the year. But even in 2022, legal and law enforcement personnel still submitted slightly more screened-in referrals than education personnel–21.2 percent of screened-in referrals compared to 20.7 percent for education personnel. Medical personnel submitted 11.2 percent of referrals and social services personnel 9.8 percent. Because these data are available only for referrals that are screened in, they reflect both the number of referrals each group submits and the extent to which they are screened in. It seems likely that teachers submit more referrals than law enforcement but that their referrals are more likely to be screened out.

Child Disposition Rates: The “Footprint” of CPS

In every state, screened-in reports may receive an investigation, which results in a determination (or disposition) about whether or not maltreatment has taken place. Some states assign some reports (often those deemed to be lower risk) to an alternative track (often called “alternative response” or “family assessment”) that does not result in a formal disposition as to whether maltreatment occurred and who was the perpetrator. ACF calls the proportion of children receiving either an investigation or an alternative response the “child disposition rate.” This is an important indicator, because it can be seen as a measure of the “footprint” of CPS–the number of children it actually touches.

For FFY 2022, an estimated 3,096,101 children, or 42.4 per 1,000 children, received an investigation or alternative response, as shown in Exhibit S-1 of the report, reproduced above. That rate has dropped 12.7 percent since FFY 2018. Not surprisingly, the biggest drop was during the pandemic, but it dropped again in 2021 and rose by only one percentage point from 41.4 in FFY 2022, remaining significantly lower than before the pandemic.

The diversity in child disposition rates across states is striking. Disregarding the 15.0 in Pennsylvania, which excludes most neglect cases from NCANDS,¹ this rate ranges from a low of 17.1 per 1,000 children in Maryland to a chilling 131.3 in West Virginia (over one out of 10 children!). The opioid crisis and its catastrophic effects on children in West Virginia has received considerable media attention. It is worth noting that West Virginia’s child disposition rate has decreased from 143.2 in FFY 2018. Below West Virginia, Arkansas and Indiana have similar child disposition rates of 79.9 and 78.8 respectively, far above the next group of states at about 66. The five states with the lowest child welfare “footprint,” (other than Pennsylvania) are Maryland, Hawaii, South Dakota, Connecticut and Louisiana.

Some states or jurisdictions, including Alaska, Arizona, the District of Columbia, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Montana, North Dakota, Rhode Island, and South Carolina, had very large decreases in their disposition rates between FFY 2021 and FFY 2022. These may reflect purposeful policy changes to reduce the role of child welfare (such as Indiana’s addition of categories to be screened out), but it may also affect other factors such as the workforce crisis that is affecting child welfare in most states.

CPS Workforce Data and Child Disposition Rates

Child Maltreatment 2022 also provides interesting data on state child welfare workforces although the quality of the data is impossible to assess. Table 2-4 of the report provides the CPS caseload, which is obtained by dividing the number of intake, screening, investigation and alternative response workers by the number of “completed reports,” meaning reports with a disposition. That is not a very meaningful number, because it leaves out all the alternative response cases, while the workers who handle these cases are included in the numerator. In order to get a better sense of the number of children seen by each worker, I divided the number of children receiving an investigation or alternative response by the number of workers in the 20 states with the highest populations, minus the four states that did not provide workforce numbers–Florida, Georgia, New York and Ohio, as well as Pennsylvania.¹

Among the 15 states in the table below, there is a staggering variation in the number of children per worker, which ranged from 21.1 in Wisconsin to 199.4 in Indiana. As child welfare commentator Dee Wilson explains in an unpublished analysis, “Differences of this magnitude develop over time when policymakers do not staff child welfare systems in accordance with workload standards.” We must also keep in mind that we do not know if the data are truly comparable between states.

Children Per Worker, FFY 2022

“Victimization”

An investigation can result in a variety of dispositions, depending on the state. Most states use the term “substantiated” to indicate that the allegation was verified, but some states use another term, usually “indicated.” In NCANDS, a “victim” is defined as “a child for whom the state determined at least one maltreatment was substantiated or indicated; and a disposition of substantiated or indicated was assigned for a child in a report.” A reader might think the terms “victim” and “victimization” reflect the true number of children who experienced abuse or neglect. But there are many reasons they do not provide such a true count. Many cases of child maltreatment go unreported. Children assigned to alternative response will not be found to be victims unless their case is reassigned to the investigation track. And finally, substantiation is not an accurate reflection of whether maltreatment occurred. Adults can lie, children can lie, perhaps when coached by adults, the youngest children are nonverbal or not sufficiently articulate to explain what happened or didn’t, and making a determination of whether maltreatment occurred is difficult. So it is not surprising that research suggests that substantiation decisions are inaccurate² and a report to the hotline predicts future maltreatment reports and developmental outcomes almost as well as a substantiated report.³ For all of these reasons, it is widely recognized that the number of children estimated to be victims of maltreatment is likely an underestimate. And over time, events such as the coronavirus pandemic or changes in state policies can be confounded (innocently or cynically) with actual changes in child maltreatment victimization. For that reason I generally put quotes around “victimization” or replace it with “substantiation,” and use the terms “substantiated victims” or “children found to be victims of maltreatment” instead of “victims.”

The 2022 report provides an estimate of 558,899 substantiated victims of maltreatment, or 7.7 per 1,000 children, down from 8.2 in FFY 2021. States differed greatly in the “victimization rates” that they found in FFY 2022. Of course these differences can stem from the factors mentioned above, as well as from actual maltreatment. The number of substantiated victims per 1,000 children ranged from 1.6 in New Jersey to 16.5 in Massachusetts. We know that New Jersey has been intent on reducing CPS involvement in the lives of families, no doubt encouraged by its effort to exit a class action suit monitored by the Center for the Study of Social Policy, one of the founders of the upEND movement to abolish child welfare. So its low victimization rate is not surprising (An article by Sarah Font and Naomi Schaefer Riley discusses the New Jersey experience in more detail.) New Jersey’s “victimization” rate has dropped by more than half since FFY 2018.

The number of children found to be victims of maltreatment has declined every year since FFY 2018. The change in state “victimization rates” between FFY 2018 and FFY 2022 ranged from a 48 percent decrease in Kentucky to a 14.5 percent increase in Nevada over those five years. Many things could explain these changes other than an actual change in maltreatment, including policy changes made by state legislatures or agencies. Two of the largest states made it more difficult to substantiate maltreatment in FFY 2022, and both found a decline in the number of maltreatment victims. In Texas, the legislature narrowed the definition of neglect, requiring the existence of both “blatant disregard” for the consequences of a parent’s action or inaction and either a “resulting harm or immediate danger.” Perhaps this helps account for the drop in the number of substantiated victims from 65,253 to 54,207. In New York, the level of evidence required to substantiate an allegation of abuse or neglect was changed from “some credible evidence” to “a fair preponderance of the evidence.” The number of victims found in New York dropped from 56,760 to 50,056. States reported other reasons for changes in their rates of “victimization,” including changes in the use of alternative response, new screening and intake tools, reduction in investigation backlogs, and the continued effects of the pandemic.

It is instructive to look at the changes in the number of referrals, screened-in referrals, child disposition rates, and child “victimization rates” between FFY 2021 and FFY 2022, as the nation came out of the pandemic. Thinking about the process as a funnel starting with referrals and ending with victims, we can see that the effect of the increased referrals is further attenuated at each stage. While the number of referrals increased from 4,010,000 to 4,276,000, an increase of 6.6 percent, the number of screened in referrals increased only 3.3 percent. The number of children receiving an investigation or alternative response increased by only 2.0 percent. And the number of children substantiated as victims decreased by a whopping 7.2 percent. It’s just another way of describing what we have already seen–that the child welfare system’s response is not keeping up with the public’s renewed reporting activity.

Source: Child Maltreatment 2022 and author’s calculations

Demographics and “Victimization”

Younger children are more likely to be substantiated as maltreatment victims. The likelihood of being a substantiated victim of maltreatment is is more than twice as high for an infant younger than one than for a two-year-old, and drops a bit with every one-year increase in age. Girls are more likely to be substantiated as victims than boys, with a rate of 8.2 per 1,000 children, compared to 7.1 for boys. This is probably related to sexual abuse; girls are the overwhelming majority of victims of substantiated sexual abuse, as shown in Exhibit 7-F of the report.

In terms of race and ethnicity, American Indiana and Alaska Native children had the highest rate of substantiation as a victims, at 14.3 per 100,000 children, followed by Black or African-American children with a rate of 12.1 per 100,000 children. The rate for Hispanic children was 7.0 per 100,000 and for White children it was 6.6 per 100,000. Again, the number of substantiated victims is not equal to the number of actual victims. These rates reflect the extent to which these children are reported to CPS, the referrals are screened in, and they are substantiated. If, as many assert, there is systematic bias affecting referral, screening, and investigation, then the total number substantiated will also reflect that bias.

Victimization Rate per 1,000 children by Race and Ethnicity, FFY 2022

American Indian/Alaska Native: 14.3
Asian: 1.3
Black or African-American:12.1
Hispanic: 7.0
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander: 9.3
Two or more races: 9.4
White: 6.6

The claim that these rates are biased has resulted in a movement to eliminate racial disproportionality in child welfare or even to eliminate child welfare itself, as promulgated by the upEND Movement. However, evidence confirms that the Black-White difference in substantiation rates is actually less than the disparities in other indicators of child risk and adversity. A group of prominent child welfare researchers led by Brett Drake estimated the “expected rate” of being reported to CPS, using several categories of risk and harm that are known to be highly correlated with the risk of child abuse and neglect, such as poverty, single-parent families, teen birth rate, very low birth weight, and homicide. Drake et al. reported that the disparity in all the measures of risk, and in all of the measures of harm except accidental deaths, were greater than the disparity for CPS reports, as measured by NCANDS. In other words, there was a greater disparity in risk and harm to Black children compared with White children than there was in CPS reporting. Thus, given their likelihood of being abused or neglected, Black children appear to be reported to CPS less than White children, not more. And even when adjusted to account for confounding factors, Black children are less likely to be substantiated (and placed in foster care) than White children. So if anything, the “victimization rates” provided in CM 2022 may underestimate the true disparities in child maltreatment substantiation of Black and White children.

CM 2022 also provides information on the number of substantiated victims with different maltreatment types. Three-quarters of the substantiated victims, or 74.3 percent, were found to have experienced neglect, 17 percent physical abuse, 10.6 percent sexual abuse, 0.2 percent sex trafficking, and another 3.4 percent another type of maltreatment. (These percentages add up to more than 100 because some children were found to be victims of more than one type of maltreatment during the year.) As shown in Table 3-9 of the report, some states diverged from the pattern that substantiated allegations are for neglect–and instead found more (or almost as many) children to be physically abused than neglected. These states include West Virginia, where 76.2 percent of substantiated victims were found to have suffered physical abuse; Vermont, (58.6 percent); Tennessee (51.8 percent), Alabama (53.5 percent), South Carolina (47.5 percent), and Ohio, with 46.6 percent.⁵ Corporal punishment often opens the door to physical abuse, some of these states are in regions where corporal punishment is known to be more prevalent. But the absence of Mississippi on this list (with only 16.0 percent of victims substantiated for abuse) and the presence of Vermont are surprising. Perhaps liberal Vermont is simply reluctant to find neglect in cases associated with poverty; only three percent of its victims were found to be neglected. And perhaps in Mississippi, a state that allows corporal punishment in the schools, the standard for finding abuse is may be high.

Substantiation by Reporting Source

Chapter 7 of CM 2022 contains an interesting table plotting the number of substantiations for each reporting source. We have seen that legal and law enforcement personnel made only slightly more screened-in reports than education personnel in FFY 2022: Table 7-3 of the report shows that each group made approximately 21 percent of the reports that were screened in. Yet the reports made by law enforcement personnel accounted for 38 percent of the substantiated victims, and the reports of educators accounted for only 11 percent of the substantiated victims. So reports from law enforcement personnel were over three times more likely to be substantiated than reports from teachers. Medical personnel did better but not quite as well as the police: they made 11 percent of screened-in reports, which accounted for 13 percent of substantiated victims. An analysis by The Imprint shows that social services personnel have a slightly higher share of substantiated reports than of total reports, while nonprofessionals have a substantially lower share. The data align with increasing criticisms of teachers as making too many reports that do not rise to the level or abuse or neglect. Whether that is true, or whether reports from teachers are automatically devalued because of their source, cannot be ascertained from this information.

Fatalities Continued to Increase

CM 2022 reports an estimated increase in child maltreatment fatalities for the fifth consecutive year. The report provides a national estimate of 1,990 children who died of abuse or neglect in FFY 2022 at a rate of 2.73 per 100,000 children in the population. That number has increased every year since 2018, and the 2022 estimate is a 12.7 percent increase over the estimate from 2018. The increase in child fatalities started before 2018; Child Maltreatment 2017 reported an 11 percent increase in child fatalities from 1,550 in FFY 2013 to 1,720 in FFY 2017. That amounts to a 28 percent increase between FFY 2013 and FFY 2022.

There are many caveats to be made about year-to-year comparisons of child fatalities. First, there is nearly universal agreement among experts that the annual estimates of child fatalities from NCANDS dramatically undercount the true number of deaths that are due to child maltreatment. As CM 2022 states, some child deaths may not come to the attention of CPS at all. That can happen if nobody makes a report, perhaps because there are no surviving children in the family, or if the family is not already involved with CPS. For this reason the Child and Family Services Improvement and Innovation Act (P.L. 112-34) requires states to describe in their state plans all the sources used to compile information on child maltreatment deaths, and to the extent that information from state vital statistics departments, child death review teams, law enforcement agencies and medical examiners or coroners is not included in that description, to explain why that information is not included and how it will be included. Most states that comment on fatalities report using at least some of these sources, but the extent to which they are capturing actual fatalities is unclear. Only Virginia reports that it does not collect child fatality data from external sources.

Second, the fatalities reported in the 2022 report did not all occur in 2022. The report explains that child fatalities reported in CM 2022 are generally those that were determined to be due to maltreatment in 2022, not those that actually occurred during 2022. That is because It may take more than a year to find out about a fatality, gather the evidence (such as autopsy results and police investigations) to determine whether it was due to maltreatment, and then make the detrmination. Some states report that the deaths they reported may have occurred as long as five years before 2022. However, each state has its own way of determining which fatalities to report. California, for example, explains that the fatalities reported in the 2022 report were actually fatalities that occurred in FFY 2021 and were known to the state by December 2021, meaning that the estimate is truncated.

The meaning of the increasing fatalities is not obvious. Just like “victimization,” the classification of a death as a maltreatment fatality depends upon whether the fatality was even reported to the child welfare agency as well as whether the correct decision was made to substantiate the fatality as due to maltreatment. As mentioned above, states are supposed to gather the information about fatalities from other sources like medical examiners, but the extent to which they are receiving this information, and the extent to which these other sources are identifying maltreatment, is unclear.⁶

From the explanations that some states provided in their commentaries, it appears that annual maltreatment fatality counts can reflect a variety of factors. Year-to-year changes are often attributed to random fluctuations due to small numbers or timing issues. In their commentaries, states often explained a year-to-year jump by explaining that many children in one family died, or or that a large group of fatalities that occurred the previous year were reported in the current year.

Some states reported on societal issues that have contributed to increasing child fatalities over time. For example, Washington’s commentary suggests that the opioid crisis has contributed to its increase in fatalities from 19 in FFY 2021 to 31 in FFY 2022. The state reports that between FFY 2021 and FFY 202 the percentage of child fatalities in the state that were due to opioid ingestion or overdose rose from less than one percent to 23 percent of child fatalities. Of the deaths and near-fatalities that qualified for a review because they occurred in families touched by the system in the previous year, that percentage jumped from 28 to 44 percent. Ohio reported that it attributes the increase in child fatalities to an increase in the overall death rate due to violence. Other states commented on the type of deaths that have increased, such as unsafe sleep coexisting with substance abuse.

Changes in how maltreatment fatalities are defined can also affect fatality counts, and in the case of Texas, the change resulted in a decrease in child fatalities from 206 in FFY 2021 to 176 in FFY 2022. Specifically, Texas attributes this decrease to the new law that makes the definition of neglect more stringent. Considering that the new law requires both “reckless disregard” of the consequences of parental action or inaction and actual harm, and given that death is certainly harm, this suggests that those investigating the deaths did not consider that the parents or caregivers exhibited such reckless disregard. Texas reports that deaths from unsafe sleep, drowning, and vehicle-related fatalities declined in FFY 2022 under the new definition of neglect.

Some states attribute increases in reported fatalities to improvements in the accuracy with which they report child fatalities. Commentaries from states that experienced an increase in child maltreatment fatalities in recent CM reports include accounts of their improvements in their ability to identify such deaths. These included several states that reported an increased awareness of unsafe sleep practices and hot car deaths resulting in more reports involving these cases, the creation of a Special Investigation Unit that investigates child fatalities to determine whether they are due to maltreatment (Mississippi); requiring mandated reporters participating on child fatality review boards to report suspected maltreatment fatalities to the local child welfare agency (Ohio); the development of capability to track fatalities at report, during investigation, or in care (Maine); ensuring that documentation of deaths is included in the states CCWIS system (Maryland); increased training of staff and partners on reporting child fatalities (Texas); and implementation of death review panels (Arkansas). Therefore, it is not possible to determine the extent to which the increase in reported child maltreatment fatalities reflects better identification, more maltreatment deaths, or a combination of the two.

Demographics and child maltreatment fatalities

Infants under a year old are more than three times more likely to die of maltreatment than one-year-olds, and the fatality rate generally decreases with age. In contrast to the different rates of substantiated abuse or neglect, boys have a higher maltreatment fatality rate (3.26 per 100,000 boys) than girls (2.25 per 100,000). Black children have by far the highest fatality rate of all the groups for whom information was available; 6.37 per 100,000 black children died of substantiated maltreatment, compared to 3.37 for American Indian or Native American children, 1.99 for White children, and 1.68 for Hispanic children. The maltreatment fatality rate for Black children is over three times as high than the rate for White children, a difference that is even more stark than the difference in the “victimization rate,: which is twice as high for Black children than for White children.

The question of bias has to be addressed again when talking about fatalities from maltreatment. It is theoretically possible that racial bias could play a role in whether a fatality is substantiated as maltreatment. But it is likely that there is less opportunity for bias when it comes to fatalities, as the fact that harm was done cannot be disputed even if the parent’s role may be unclear. Drake et al. found that in 2019 indicators of risk and harm for Black children are usually between two and three times greater than those for White children, while the Black-White homicide disparity was four times as great as that for White children. So while we cannot rule out any role for bias, it is unlikely to be the main cause of the disparities in child maltreatment fatalities.

The data showed that most of the perpetrators of child fatalities were caregivers; more than 80 percent of child fatalities involved “one or more parents acting alone, together, or with other individuals.” NCANDS does not collect the official cause of death, but it does ask for the type of maltreatment that was substantiated in each fatality. Thus, one child can be found to have suffered more than one type of maltreatment, though it is not clear that each maltreatment type that was substantiated must have contributed to the fatality. Over three quarters (76.4 percent) of the children who died were found to have suffered from neglect, and 42.1 percent were found to have endured physical abuse.

It is worth noting that CM 2022 was originally released on or about January 8 without a press release and then disappeared from the internet for about three weeks. It is hard to avoid speculating about the reasons for the removal of CM 2022 and then its publication several weeks later. Could it be that officials were trying to figure out how to spin the five years of increase in fatalities? When the press release finally appeared along with the restored report, ACF had elected to basically recycle last years headline, New Child Maltreatment Report Finds Child Abuse and Neglect Decreased to a Five-Year Low. Once again, the press release failed to explain that victimization is not actual maltreatment. It did mention the increase in child maltreatment fatalities and, surprisingly, did not raise the possibility that better measurement contributed to this increase, which might have helped their case.

In the press release, Children’s Bureau Associate Commissioner Aysha Schomberg is quoted as encouraging “agencies to pay particular attention to data in this report that is disaggregated by race.” There is something perplexing about this suggestion. Paying attention to race means observing the stark disparities in child maltreatment “victimization” and fatal child maltreatment, between White children and Black and Native American children. ACF and its allies at Casey Family Programs, the Center for the Study of Social Policy and other like-minded organizations typically argue that these disparities are not due to different rates of maltreatment but to racial bias built into the system. But ACF’s press release accepts these “victimization” rates as a true indicator of child maltreatment, which suggests that the racial disparities in child maltreatment are real. And if that is indeed the case, as I believe it is, isn’t the right answer to protect Black and Native American children through a stronger and better-functioning CPS, rather than trying to weaken or abolish it?

ACF’s Communications team’s misuse of the term “victimization” to suggest that maltreatment is declining is disappointing in a government agency with a responsibility to inform the public. We will never get an accurate measure of child maltreatment because so much of it occurs behind closed doors. So what is the real meaning of CM 2022? The failure of the child disposition rate to keep up with the increase in reports suggests a decreasing response by child welfare to reports of maltreatment, with the slight uptick after the pandemic disguising a downward secular trend over the entire period. The continuing decline in substantiations despite the increase in referrals, while not indicative of declining maltreatment, shows even more clearly how child welfare systems are seeking to reduce their involvement with families. Could the increase in child fatalities be the consequence of this reduced involvement? It is possible, but the improvement of fatality reporting in some states makes it impossible to answer this question definitively.

Notes

In Pennsylvania, referrals that involve non-serious injuries or neglect are assigned to General Protective Services (GPS), and information on these cases is not reported in NCANDS.
Theodore Cross and Cecilia Casanueva, “Caseworker Judgments and Substantiation,” Child Maltreatment, 14, 1 (2009): 38-52; Desmond K. Runyan et al, “Describing Maltreatment: Do child protective services reports and research definitions agree?” Child Abuse and Neglect 29 (2005): 461-477; Brett Drake, “Unraveling ‘Unsubstantiated,'” Child Maltreatment, August 1996; and Amy M. Smith Slep and Richard E. Heyman, “Creating and Field-Testing Child Maltreatment Definitions: Improving the Reliability of Substantiation Determinations,” Child Maltreatment, 11, 3 (August 2006): 217-236.
Brett Drake, Melissa Jonson-Reid, Ineke Wy and Silke Chung, “Substantiation and Recidivism,” Child Maltreatment 8,4 (2003): 248-260; Jon M. Hussey et al., “Defining maltreatment according to substantiation: Distinction without a difference?” Child Abuse and Neglect 29 (2005): 479-492; Patricia L. Kohl, Melissa Jonson-Reid, and Brett Drake, “Time to Leave Substantiation Behind: Findings from a National Probability Study,” Child Maltreatment, 14 (2009), 17-26; Jeffrey Leiter, Kristen A. Myers, and Matthew T. Zingraff, “Substantiated and unsubstantiated cases of child maltreatment: do their consequences differ?” Social Work Research 18 (1994): 67-82; and Diana J. English et al, “Causes and Consequences of the Substantiation Decision in Washington State Child Protective Services,” Children and Youth Services Review, 24, 11 (2002): 817-851.
The ideal numerator would be the duplicated count of children who received and investigation or alternative response, because even if one child is investigated five times, each investigation needs to be counted. But CM 2022 does not provide that number, and I am assuming that there won’t be enormous differences in repeat responses by state.
Pennsylvania also has a high percentage of abuse findings but that reflects the fact that it does not report General Protective Services cases in NCANDS.
Each state submits both a child and an agency file. The Child File contains case-level data on reports that resulted in a disposition in the reporting year. The Agency File contains data that are not reportable at the child-specific level and often gathered from agencies external to CPS, like medical examiners vital statistics departments and child fatality review teams. Child fatalities can be included in the Child File, which means the entire record of the case from report to disposition is included (as well as any previous cases) or it can be included only as part of the aggregate total in the agency file. States must report as part of the Agency File the total number of victims who were not reported in the Child File, so that those that were reported are not double-counted.

The new Child Maltreatment 2021 Report: Did child maltreatment really decrease?

The federal government’s annual maltreatment report for 2021 was released on February 9, 2023, and the child welfare establishment is celebrating. New Child Maltreatment Report Finds Child Abuse and Neglect Decreased to a Five-Year Low, crowed the Administration on Children and Families (ACF). “Number of Abuse and Neglect Victims Declines Again,” trumpeted The Imprint, a journal that typically reflects the prevailing voices in child welfare today. Left for the body of the ACF press release (and totally omitted by The Imprint) was the fact that in 2021 the nation was still in a pandemic that kept many schools closed for much of the year, and that child maltreatment “victimization” reflects jurisdictions’ policy and practice much more than it reflects actual maltreatment. Thus, there is no reason to celebrate a decrease in child maltreatment based on this report.

Child Maltreatment 2021 , the latest edition in the annual series from the ACF, combines data from the 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico about the number of reports or children involved in each stage of the child welfare system in Federal Fiscal Year (FFY) 2021, which ran from October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021. The data are obtained from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS), a national data collection program run by the Children’s Bureau under ACF. Arizona did not submit data in time to have its data included in this report, so only 49 states are included in this year’s report, along with the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. Commentaries from most of the states regarding policies and conditions that may affect their data are attached in an appendix. The report’s findings are summarized in Exhibit S-2. All of the figures in this post are taken from the report.

A family’s journey through the child welfare system starts with an initial report, known as a “referral.” Figure 2-D below shows that the total number of referrals (the purple line) rose between 2017 and 2019, dropped sharply in the wake of the Covid pandemic in 2020, as schools closed and many families isolated at home, and increased only slightly in FFY 2021. It is important to remember that in FFY 2021, which began in October 2020, many schools were still closed. Most schools opened over the course of FFY 2021, but some remained closed the entire year. Thus, reporting from school personnel was suppressed for the federal fiscal year.

The rate of referrals as a portion of the child population varied greatly by state. Table 2-1 of the report shows that the total referral rate per 1,000 children in 2021 ranged from a low of 17.8 in Hawaii to a high of 137.0 in Vermont in 2021. Such differences exist every year and reflect factors such as public opinion and knowledge of child maltreatment reporting, as well as state practices. Some states do not even report most referrals to NCANDS, as described in the state commentaries. Pennsylvania has a unique system in which most reports that are not for abuse are classified as “General Protective Services” and not reported to NCANDS. Similarly, Connecticut does not report referrals receiving an alternative (non investigation) to NCANDS. In 2021, state-to-state differences may also reflect how soon in-person schooling resumed in the state after the pandemic. Vermont reported in its commentary that it has been receiving more referrals for concerns that do not reflect maltreatment. Vermont also included several reasons for its high referral rate, including the fact that reports on multiple children in the same family are counted separately. Kansas reported a decrease in reports due to “engaging communities to focus on prevention.”

Once a referral is received, it can be screened in or out by agency hotline or intake units. In general, agencies screen out referrals that do not meet agency criteria, which vary by jurisdiction. Reasons for screening out a referral may include that it does not meet the definition of child abuse or neglect, that not enough information is provided, that another agency should more appropriately respond, or that the children being referred are over 18. Despite receiving slightly more referrals than the previous year, child welfare agencies screened out a larger proportion of them in FY 2021, resulting in a slight decrease in screened in referrals (known as “reports“), from 2020 to 2021 – the blue line in Exhibit 2-D. In the 46 states that provided both data points, 51.5 percent of referrals were screened in and 48.5 percent were screened out.

There is great diversity in the proportion of referrals accepted by states. The percentage of referrals that was screened-in ranged from 15.3 in South Dakota to 98.5 percent in Alabama.¹ There are many reasons for these variations, mostly associated with differing policies and practices between jurisdictions. For example, Georgia mentioned in its commentary that after hotline calls increased in 2021, it adjusted screening criteria to screen out more of them. Indiana tried to reduce its screen-in rate by changing criteria related to sexual behavior among teens and preteens, marijuana use by children, and educational neglect. Kansas reported a decrease in reports due to a change in the screening process for educational neglect. Missouri, on the other hand, changed screening criteria to screen in more referrals out of concern for children isolated because of the pandemic.

In FFY 2019, teachers were the most common source of referrals, submitting 21 percent of all referrals. They lost that position in FFY 2020 with the pandemic school closures, while legal and law enforcement personnel increased their share of reports. Perhaps it is not surprising that teachers did not recoup their leading role in 2021, since many students were still attending school virtually for some part of the year. Teachers actually submitted a smaller proportion of referrals in 2021 (15.4 percent) than in 2020 (17.2 percent). It is possible that teachers were making more calls but that more of these calls were being screened out than in the year before. But since ACF does not show the distribution of all referrals by reporting source, one cannot use this data to test that hypothesis.

Investigations

In Chapter 3 of Child Maltreatment 2021 the focus shifts from the referral or report to the child. ACF estimates that 3.016 million children or 40.7 children per 1,000 in the population received an investigation or alternative response² in 2021. This was a slight decrease over 2020, when 42.0 per 1,000 children received an investigation or alternative response. These rates varied greatly by state, from a low of 12.8 per 1,000 in Pennsylvania to a high of 129.8 in West Virginia. The low in Pennsylvania is not surprising due to its unique system in which most neglect referrals are not reported to NCANDS. But Maryland and Hawaii also investigated small proportions of children– 15.7 and 15.9 per 1,000. These investigation rates reflect the number of referrals and how many were screened in, as well as the number of children per referral.

ACF found that of the children who received an investigation or alternative response, 16.7 percent were found to be victims of child abuse or neglect, as shown in Exhibit 3-B.³ The remaining children were not determined to be victims or received an alternative response. Estimating for missing data from Arizona, ACF calculated a national “victimization rate” of 8.1 per 1,000 children. As Exhibit 3-C shows, this rate has been decreasing since 2018 but the greatest decrease was in 2020 with the arrival of the pandemic.

ACF’s use of the term “victimization” can be misleading. An investigator’s decision about the truth of an allegation is based on limited information and is constrained by available time and staff, and evidence indicates that many referrals are unsubstantiated when maltreatment actually exists. Moreover, these rates are dependent on state policies and practices. Because of the misleading nature of the term “victimization,” the term “substantiation” is used for the rest of this commentary. State substantiation rates per 1,000 children ranged from 1.6 in New Jersey (even lower than Pennsylvania’s 1.8) to 17.0 in West Virginia, suggesting that these rates reflect much more than the prevalence of child abuse and neglect.

Among the many factors that can influence state substantiation rates are:

Differences in referral rates and screening practices, as decribed above;
Different policies about what is considered child maltreatment and different levels of evidence required to substantiate an abuse allegation;
Whether and how much a state uses an alternative (non-investigation response);
Natural and social disasters that may vary in their impact between states. Some states went back to in-person schooling for the entirety of 2021, others opened midyear, and others were virtual almost all year. West Virginia, with the highest substantiation rate, has been particularly hard-hit by the opioid epidemic. The state has the highest overdose mortality rate in the nation;
Differences in the messages coming from an agency’s leadership about the relative importance of child safety versus family preservation;
Variations in the use of kinship diversion, the practice of placing children with a relative without court involvement or case opening. If this happens before the investigation is completed, it may result in an “unsubstantiated finding.

All of these factors can change over time, affecting substantiation rate trends from year to year. It is clear that nationwide, the COVID-19 pandemic continued to suppress reports to CPS hotlines, and therefore investigations and maltreatment findings, in 2021. But the effect of the pandemic differed greatly between states: it appears that some states had more in-person days of school in 2021 than in 2020, and others had less. Additionally, several states described changes in their screening practices in 2021, usually to screen in fewer referrals. Delaware and Washington mentioned an increase in reports diverted to differential response as a reason for declining substantiation numbers in FFY 2021. The emphasis on prevention as an alternative to intervention has been increasing in most states, perhaps affecting the likelihood of substantiation. It is possible also that increases in kinship diversion may have reduced substantiation rates: there is no data to prove or disprove this, but concern over this practice is certainly growing.

To state that maltreatment decreased between 2020 and 2021 is to ignore that “maltreatment victimization” is not a measure of actual abuse and neglect. It is the result of a winnowing process that starts even before a referral arrives. At each stage, the numbers remaining may depend on a wide variety of factors, including policy, practice, natural and man-made disasters and more. The vast differences between state data on referrals, reports, investigations and substantiations shows how unlikely it is that the total number of children found to be victims of maltreatment reflects the actual number of maltreated children, and how irresponsible it is to suggest this might be the case.

A note on Child Fatalities

Last year, ACF used a decline in fatalities due to child maltreatment to headline its press release, Child Fatalities Due to Abuse and Neglect Decreased in FY 2020, Report Finds. This year, the number of child abuse and neglect fatalities reported by states increased slightly, a rise that was not the subject of a headline by ACF. Whether there is a small increase like this year or a decrease like last year means very little, for several reasons. As ACF explains, these child fatality counts reflect the federal fiscal years in which the children were determined to have died of maltreatment, which may be different from the year the child actually died. Such determinations may come much later due to the time it takes to complete a death investigation. For example Alabama reported that for the fatalities reported in FFY 2021, the actual dates of death were between FFY’s 2016 and 2021. Michigan even reported that its child fatality data included the child abuse death of twins in 2003 which was revealed by a cold case investigation.

A second problem with the fatality estimates is that they are widely believed to be too low. One reason is that many states report only on fatalities that came to the attention of child protective services agencies. As the report’s authors point out, many child maltreatment fatalities do not become known to agencies when there are no siblings or the family was not involved with the child welfare agency. Moreover, some fatalities resulting from abuse or neglect are labeled as due to accident, “sudden infant death syndrome,” or undetermined or unknown causes because insufficient evidence was found. I recently reviewed the child fatality review report produced by the District of Columbia’s Child and Family Services agency (CFSA). CFSA relied on the decisions of the medical examiner, which chose not to classify as maltreatment deaths an infant who died after a mother who was high on PCP rolled on top of him when sleeping with him in the same bed (counted as “unknown); a baby left on his stomach with a bottle in his mouth when his mother left the apartment (counted as “undertermined); a child who was shot to death by gunmen trying to kill her father, involved in the violent drug trade, outside a liquor store at 11:00 PM (“non-abuse homicide”), and a child who died of an untreated bacterial infection and had beating injuries diagnosed by doctors as due to abuse (“undetermined”). The total number of maltreatment fatalities was estimated at only three for the District in CY 2021, not including those four deaths. Some researchers suggest that the actual number of abuse and neglect fatalities may be as much as twice or three times that given in the Child Maltreatment reports,⁴ and the District of Columbia data suggest this may well be the case.

Notes

This leaves out three states that are listed as screening in 100 percent of referrals: Illinois, New Jersey and North Dakota. Both Illinois and New Jersey explained in their state commentaries that reports must meet certain criteria to be accepted for investigation, so it is not clear why they responded that they screen in 100 percent of referrals. North Dakota actually screens in all referrals, but that is more semantic than real. Reports that do not meet agency criteria for a report of suspected chlid abuse or neglect are categorized as receiving an “administrative assessment,” and are not investigated. North Dakota does not report the number of referrals receiving an “adminnistrative assessment;” hence the reports that 100 percent of cases are screened in. It is unclear why New Jersey and Ilinois provided this figure of 100 percent but the reason may be similar.
Alternative response is, as defined in NCANDS, the “provision of a response other than an investigation that determines if a child or family needs services. A determination of maltreatment is not made and a perpetrator is not determined.”
NCANDS defines a “victim” as “a child for whom the state determined at least one maltreatment was substantiated or indicated, and a disposition of substantiated or indicated was assigned for a child in a report.” “Indicated” is defined as a disposition that concludes that maltreatment could not be substantiated under state law or policy, but there is a reason to suspect that at least one child may have been maltreated or is at risk of maltreatment.”
Herman-Giddens, M. E., et al. (1999). Underascertainment of child abuse mortality in the United States. JAMA , 282(5), 463-467. Available from http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=190980. Also, Cotton, E. E. (2006). Administrative case review project, Clark County, Nevada: Report of data analysis, findings and recommendations. Crume, T. L., DiGuiseppi, C., Byers, T., Sirotnak, A. P., & Garrett, C. J. (2002). Underascertainment of child maltreatment fatalities by death certificates, 1990-1998. Pediatrics, 110(2). Abstract available from https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12165617/. Herman-Giddens et al. estimate actual child abuse and neglect deaths to be as high as three times the national reported amount; Cotton et al. and Crume et al. found the actual number of deaths to be twice that reported.